Zero-inflated models for identifying disease risk factors when case detection is imperfect: Application to highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand     

Timothée Vergne  Mathilde C. Paul  Wanida Chaengprachak  Benoit Durand  Marius Gilbert  Barbara Dufour  François Roger  Suwicha Kasemsuwan  Vladimir Grosbois 《Preventive veterinary medicine》2014

Logistic regression models integrating disease presence/absence data are widely used to identify risk factors for a given disease. However, when data arise from imperfect surveillance systems, the interpretation of results is confusing since explanatory variables can be related either to the occurrence of the disease or to the efficiency of the surveillance system. As an alternative, we present spatial and non-spatial zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regressions for modelling the number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks that were reported at subdistrict level in Thailand during the second epidemic wave (July 3rd 2004 to May 5th 2005). The spatial ZIP model fitted the data more effectively than its non-spatial version. This model clarified the role of the different variables: for example, results suggested that human population density was not associated with the disease occurrence but was rather associated with the number of reported outbreaks given disease occurrence. In addition, these models allowed estimating that 902 (95% CI 881–922) subdistricts suffered at least one HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Thailand although only 779 were reported to veterinary authorities, leading to a general surveillance sensitivity of 86.4% (95% CI 84.5–88.4). Finally, the outputs of the spatial ZIP model revealed the spatial distribution of the probability that a subdistrict could have been a false negative. The methodology presented here can easily be adapted to other animal health contexts.  相似文献   

A gamma‐ray spectrometry approach to field separation of illuviation‐type WRB reference soil groups in northern Thailand     

Ulrich Schuler  Petra Erbe  Mehdi Zarei  Wanida Rangubpit  Adichat Surinkum  Karl Stahr  Ludger Herrmann 《植物养料与土壤学杂志》2011,174(4):536-544

According to the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (IUSS Working Group WRB, 2006), the differentiation of Acrisols and Alisols is based on the cation‐exchange capacity of clay, which cannot be directly determined in the field, but needs expensive and time‐consuming soil‐chemical analyses. This is an unsatisfactory situation for pedologists, who urgently require a rapid field method to distinguish illuviation‐type reference soil groups (Alisols, Acrisols, Luvisols, Lixisols). In this study, we tested the ability of gamma‐ray spectrometry to separate major WRB reference soil groups in the field. The underlying hypothesis is that Alisols and Acrisols are distinguished by their clay mineral composition, which should be reflected by geochemistry and consequently gamma‐ray radiation (i.e., K‐containing illite vs. K‐free kaolinite). Highly significant differences in their gamma‐ray spectrum for K, Th, and U were found for limestone and its soils. Especially the K and Th signatures allowed a clear separation of Acrisols and Alisols. In general, the surface radiation was sufficient to separate these soils. Best results were revealed considering parent rock and the whole soil profile. This means by using a portable radiometer and a pH meter, all illuviation‐type reference soil groups could be distinguished in this case. If applicable at other sites, this approach could enormously reduce expenditures for soil‐chemical analysis needed to assist soil classification.  相似文献   

Pharmacokinetics of ceftriaxone in Green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) following intravenous and intramuscular administration at two dosages     

Roipim Mapongpeng  Weerapong Laovechprasit  Amnart Poapolathep  Mario Giorgi  Chalatip Junchompoo  Chainarong Sakulthaew  Usuma Jermnak  Wanida Passadurak  Saranya Poapolathep 《Journal of veterinary pharmacology and therapeutics》2019,42(1):104-110

Green sea turtles are widely distributed in tropical and subtropical waters. Adult green sea turtles face many threats, primarily from humans, including injuries from boat propellers, being caught in fishing nets, pollution, poaching, and infectious diseases. To the best of our knowledge, limited pharmacokinetic information to establish suitable therapeutic plans is available for green sea turtles. Therefore, the present study aimed to describe the pharmacokinetic characteristics of ceftriaxone (CEF) in green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, following single intravenous and intramuscular administrations at two dosages of 10 and 25 mg/kg body weight (b.w.). Blood samples were collected at assigned times up to 96 hr. The plasma concentrations of CEF were measured by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. The concentrations of CEF in the plasma were quantified up to 24 and 48 hr after i.v. and i.m. administrations at dosages of 10 and 25 mg/kg b.w., respectively. The C_max values of CEF were 15.43 ± 3.71 μg/ml and 43.48 ± 4.29 μg/ml at dosages of 10 and 25 mg/kg, respectively. The AUC_last values increased in a dose‐dependent fashion. The half‐life values were 2.89 ± 0.41 hr and 5.96 ± 0.26 hr at dosages of 10 and 25 mg/kg b.w, respectively. The absolute i.m. bioavailability was 67% and 108%, and the binding percentage of CEF to plasma protein was ranged from 20% to 29% with an average of 24.6%. Based on the pharmacokinetic data, susceptibility break‐point and PK‐PD index (T > MIC, 0.2 μg/ml), i.m. administration of CEF at a dosage of 10 mg/kg b.w. might be appropriate for initiating treatment of susceptible bacterial infections in green sea turtles.  相似文献