基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征     

李宁  白蕤  李玮  陈淼  杨桂生  陈歆  范长华  张文 《中国农业气象》2021,42(6):447

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。  相似文献   

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRE IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE     

姜乃准  段文标  朱峰 《林业研究》1996,7(1):26-28

GENERALCoNDlTloNABoUTCLI-MATECHANGEINHElLoNGJIANGPRoVINCEDtlrlngthepasscdll)()}ears(l88l-l`)8(j)ors().tllctcndenc}'ofmcanairtc111pcraturcincrcasct\ithfluctuationcl11ergcdin\ariousrcglonsofHcllonViangproxincc.Airtcmpcra-turcinl98()s-rcachcdtl1emaxil11un1uithinthcpasscdll)()y'cars.Thisphcl1ol11enonaccordcd``iththctcndenc}'ofglobalclil11ate\"ar1ni11g.Thel11eanairtc111peralurcil1tl1creccl1tl()}car(l()8()-l()8`))incrcascdb}l).6"Cascom-pal-cd\`ltl1tl1atll1tl1clbrl11er3())'carsacc…  相似文献   

WEPP模型中的CLIGEN与BPCDG应用对比研究     

缪驰远  何丙辉  陈晓燕  吴咏 《勤云标准版测试》2004,(6)

通过对遂宁组紫色土产流、产沙侵蚀的观测,运用迄今为止最为复杂的土壤侵蚀预测模型WEPP模型进行单次降雨侵蚀预测,与实测值比较,并对比通过气候生成器CLIGEN和断点生成器BPCDG的产生的气候参数对预测值的影响。通过分析比较结果,认为WEPP模型对遂宁组紫色土侵蚀过程预测合理,而且利用断点生成器BPCDG的预测结果要优于气候生成器CLIGEN的预测结果。  相似文献   

THE CLIMATE CHANGE AND FORESTRY OF HEILONGJI ANG PROVINCE IN 1990''''S     

姜乃准  段文标 《林业研究》1995,(4)

INTRODUCTIONIntheworldoftoday,theglobalclimatechangeanditsinfluenceonecologyhavebe-comeaveryimportantproblem,towhichmanyscientists,governnentleadersandordinarypcoplepaycloseattentionI1-'].Inl979,theWorldClimateResearchProgram(WCP)waslaiddowninthefirstworldclimatemeeting.lnl99(),thesecondworldclimatemeetingwasconvcl1edinGencva,andalltl1eexpertsagreedthattheglobalwarmlngwillbeextremelyseriousdisasterthananynatUralcalamityever.Attl1eMectingof"WorldEnvironmentandDevelopment,"holdinBrazil…  相似文献   

北京地区沙尘天气的气候特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李青春  吴正华 《干旱区资源与环境》2004,(Z1)

本文利用1954-2001年北京地区(20个气象站)逐月沙尘资料,重点对北京地区沙尘天气的空间分布特征、沙尘日数的年代变化规律、沙尘日数的月变化进行分析;分析了近三年北京地区出现沙尘天气特点及成因;同时对近48年的沙尘出现日数变化规律进行了小波分析。  相似文献   

国内外应对气候变化立法研究进展     

刘海涛  杨洁 《安徽农业科学》2015,(2):341-343

为了积极应对气候变化,促进低碳经济发展,分析了当前应对气候变化立法方面的研究进展,认为尽管取得了一定进展,但现有法律既不能满足我国气候外交的需求,也不足以担当气候治理的重任,我国还缺乏系统性专门性的应对气候变化法律.为了应对气候变化的挑战,必须充分整合国内外应对气候变化立法方面的科技资源,以保证我国气候外交和气候治理战略的科学性.  相似文献   

Decreasing of methanogenic activity in paddy fields via lowering ponding water temperature: A modeling investigation     

《Soil biology & biochemistry》2014

Methane (CH₄) is a potent greenhouse gas and the huge CH₄ fluxes emitted from paddy fields can prejudice the eco-compatibility of rice cultivation. CH₄ production in submerged rice crops is known to be highly influenced by water temperature. Hence, lowering ponding water temperature (LPWT) could be an option to mitigate CH₄ emissions from paddy environments when it is possible either to irrigate with slightly colder water or to increase ponding water depth. However, paddy soil is a complex environment in which many processes are simultaneously influenced by temperature, leading to a difficult prediction of LPWT effects. For this reason, LPWT efficiency is here theoretically investigated with a one-dimensional process-based model that simulates the vertical and temporal dynamics of water temperature in soil and the fate of chemical compounds that influence CH₄ emissions. The model is validated with literature measured data of CH₄ emissions from a paddy field under time-variable temperature regime. Based on modeling results, LPWT appears promising since the simulated reduction of CH₄ emissions reaches about −12% and −49% for an LPWT equal to −5 °C during the ripening stage only (last 30 days of growing season, when rice is less sensitive to temperature variations) and −2 °C over the whole growing season, respectively. LPWT affects CH₄ emissions either directly (decreasing methanogenic activity), indirectly (decreasing activity of bacteria using alternative electron acceptors), or both. The encouraging results provide the theoretical ground for further laboratory and field studies aimed to investigate the LPWT feasibility in paddy environments.  相似文献   

Soil enzyme activities during the 2011 Texas record drought/heat wave and implications to biogeochemical cycling and organic matter dynamics     

《Applied soil ecology》2014

Extreme droughts and heat waves due to climate change may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. During November 2010 to August 2011, the Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, received only 39.6 mm of precipitation (vs. the historical avg. of 373 mm) and experienced the hottest summer since record keeping began in 1911. Several enzyme activities (EAs) important in biogeochemical cycling were evaluated in two soils (a loam and a sandy loam at 0–10 cm) with a management history of monoculture (continuous cotton) or rotation (cotton and sorghum or millet). Samplings occurred under the most extreme drought and heat conditions (July 2011), after precipitation resulted in a reduction in a drought severity index (March 2012), and 12 months after the initial sampling (July 2012; loam only). Eight out of ten EAs, were significantly higher in July 2011 compared to March 2012 for some combinations of soil type and management history. Among these eight EAs, enzymes key to C (β-glucosidase, β-glucosaminidase) and P cycling (phosphodiesterase, acid and alkaline phosphatases) were significantly higher (19–79%) in July 2011 than in March 2012 for both management histories regardless of the soil type (P > 0.05). When comparing all sampling times, the activities of alkaline phosphatase, aspartase and urease (rotation only) showed this trend: July 2011 > March 2012 > July 2012. Activities of phosphodiesterase, acid phosphatase, α-galactosidase, β-glucosidase and β-glucosaminidase were higher in July 2011 than July 2012 in at least one of the two management histories. Total C was reduced significantly from July 2011 to March 2012 in the rotation for both soils. Only the activities of arylsulfatase (avg. 36%) and asparaginase showed an increase from July 2011 to March 2012 for both soil types, which may indicate they have a different origin/location than the other enzymes. EAs continued to be a fingerprint of the soil management history (i.e., higher EAs in the rotation than in monoculture) during the drought/heat wave. This study provided some of the first evidence of the adverse effects of a natural, extreme drought and heat wave on soil quality in agroecosystems as indicated by EAs involved in biogeochemical cycling.  相似文献   

田东县气候特征及舒适性分析     

何麒峰  戴雨涵  何伟  黄伟圣 《现代农业科技》2020,(3)

选取田东县1954—2010年的气温、风、相对湿度、特殊天气等4个因子,对其气候特征及人体舒适性进行分析。结果表明,田东县雨水充沛,光照充足,气候宜人;全年综合舒适指数总体平均为次舒适以上,气候舒适度高,舒适期长,为适宜旅游观光之地。本研究可以为旅游部门合理开发旅游资源提供参考性建议,以进一步推进田东县旅游业的发展。  相似文献   

气候变暖背景下河南省夏玉米花期高温灾害风险预估   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

陈怀亮  李树岩 《中国生态农业学报》2020,28(3):337-348

为预估未来气候变暖背景下夏玉米花期高温灾害风险,根据河南省19个农业气象观测站夏玉米抽雄期常年观测资料和未来RCPs(representativeconcentrationpathways)气候变化情景数据,构建夏玉米花期高温风险评价指标,开展河南省夏玉米花期高温灾害时空特征及风险演变分析。其中RCPs气候情景数据包括基准气候条件(1951—2005年, RCP-rf)和未来(2006—2050年)RCP 4.5(中)、RCP 8.5(高)两种浓度路径数据。以抽雄普遍期及之后7d确定为夏玉米花期,并内插匹配气候情景格点数据。以花期最高气温≥32℃和≥35℃作为轻度和重度高温灾害发生阈值,根据轻、重度夏玉米花期高温发生频率和高温积害,建立风险评价指标并分级。结果表明, RCP-rf情景下全省夏玉米花期高温发生频率在20.5%～81.0%(≥32℃)和3.9%～51.9%(≥35℃)。与基准条件相比,≥32℃高温发生频率增加9.1%(RCP4.5)和11.0%(RCP8.5),≥35℃高温发生频率增加8.7%(RCP4.5)和8.3%(RCP8.5)。RCP-rf情景下全省夏玉米花期高温积害在48.5～200.9℃·d(≥32℃)和9.8～138.5℃·d(≥35℃)。与基准条件相比,≥32℃高温积害增加25.4℃·d (RCP 4.5)和25.6℃·d (RCP 8.5),≥35℃高温积害增加25.8℃·d (RCP 4.5)和31.4℃·d (RCP 8.5)。由综合风险分析可知, RCP-rf情景下夏玉米花期高温灾害高值风险区主要分布在新乡、郑州、许昌、漯河、周口及其以东以北的地区(商丘除外),约占夏玉米主栽区面积的30.1%;RCP4.5情景下高值风险区扩大至洛阳和南阳以东的大部分地区,约占夏玉米主栽区面积的63.4%; RCP 8.5情景下高值风险区面积进一步向西扩大,约占夏玉米主栽区面积的占76.3%。  相似文献