Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016          下载免费PDF全文

Jian-zhai WU  Jing ZHANG  Zhang-ming GE  Li-wei XING  Shu-qing HAN  Chen SHEN  Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.  相似文献   

蜗壳式离心泵外特性仿真与实验研究     

喻德辉  陈燕  王超  白小榜  杨由超 《中国农村水利水电》2020,(1):181-184,187

为探索不同仿真方法的适用性,对ns=157的单级蜗壳离心泵不同工况的扬程和效率进行定常和非定常计算,并分别分析了定常计算时不同叶片夹角及非定常计算时不同时间步长的影响,通过与实验对比,得到的主要结论有:定常计算仅适用于额定工况外特性仿真,其扬程和效率计算误差分别为4.9%和2.9%,而定常多相位的计算误差分别为7.1%和3.2%;非定常仿真计算时,以4°为时间步长,并间隔20°保存一次计算数据,较好地预测出扬程曲线走势,额定工况扬程和效率计算误差约1.1%和1.8%,但小流量和大流量区间扬程计算误差达到10%左右。因此在水力优化设计时,若只关注高效点位置及其扬程和效率,可采用定常计算,若还关注扬程曲线走势,则应采用非定常计算。  相似文献   

都市餐饮企业的净菜需求影响因素分析——以北京市为例     

洪岚  卢悦  张恪渝 《中国瓜菜》2021,(3)

净菜的广泛使用能提高餐饮企业的出餐率,减少其后厨面积、劳动用工和厨余垃圾。基于北京地区708份餐饮企业净菜需求的问卷调查样本,运用垄断竞争市场理论和二元选择模型分析了影响餐饮企业净菜使用行为的具体因素。研究发现,对净菜了解程度不够和净菜价格偏高是制约餐饮企业使用净菜的主要因素,具有不同个体特征和环境特征的餐饮企业选择净菜的倾向性不同。建议在餐饮业大力开展净菜宣传科普工作;大力扶持净菜加工企业和发展相关技术支撑体系以降低净菜价格。  相似文献   

多营养层次生态养殖模式简析     

韩枫  常志强  高勇  王建波  李健 《水产养殖》2021,(4):24-30

系统介绍了多营养层次生态养殖模式在淡水养殖及海水养殖中的应用与发展,对比了国内外有关该养殖模式发展方向的异同,简述了该养殖模式通过提高物质和空间利用率、改善养殖环境的原理以及在我国推广应用情况,并汇总了我国沿海省份近年来开展该养殖模式选用的品种搭配及产量产值。指出了多营养层次生态养殖模式还存在的问题,对今后发展提出了建议。  相似文献   

数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析     

李兴男  金江跃  降亚楠 《排灌机械工程学报》2021,39(2):179-185

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation on the transport of different fish species in a jet fish pump     

《Aquacultural Engineering》2017

A jet fish pump with a throat of ø60 mm was designed to study its performance in the transport of different fish species and the physiological changes in fish thereafter. Experiments were conducted to investigate the fish transport rate and energy required to transport each ton of fish when transporting Carassius auratus, commonly known as the Chinese goldfish, Megalobrama amblycephala, or Wuchang bream, and Ctenopharyngodon idella, the grass carp. Fish were examined for external injuries as well as for several important enzymes and hormones which are indicators of tissue injury and stress. The results showed that the transport rate for all three species of fish rose dramatically with an increase in the primary stream rate. In this experiment, the transport rates of C. auratus, M. amblycephala and C. idella reached 2357 ± 37.2 kg ∙ h⁻¹, 2888 ± 41.6 kg ∙ h⁻¹, and 2060 ± 40.2 kg ∙ h⁻¹, respectively. However, both injury rate and energy required to transport each ton of fish increased no matter whether the primary stream rate was too low or too high. Considering both transport rate and injury rate, the mean primary stream rate of 80 m³ ∙ h⁻¹ was determined to be the optimal operating condition in this experiment. Fish were stressed and most likely some of their organs were damaged. However, most physiological indexes almost fully recovered after several hours.  相似文献   

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究     

张晓婷  刘培顺  王学芳 《山东林业科技》2020,50(1):1-6,40

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。  相似文献   

Engineered-airlift pumps for aquaculture applications using multiphase flow analysis     

《Aquacultural Engineering》2019

Currently, very few aquaculture operations are employing airlift pump technology for water recirculation, aeration, and waste removal. This is likely due to the poor design and lower efficiency of traditional airlift design, the limited amount of research effort that has been invested in improving performance capabilities of air lift pumps and the general lack of awareness of the industry about the inherent advantages of airlift systems. A new efficient airlift pump is hydrodynamically designed by incorporating the Volume of Fluid (VOF) multi-phase model along with the K-ε turbulence model utilizing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools. The pump is designed to offer a substantial reduction in total energy usage as well as an improved quality of the culture products in order to make it attractive to aquaculture industry. In this study, both numerical and experimental investigations were carried out for airlift systems operating under two different submergence ratios of 50% and 90% in a lab setting using 2.54 cm diameter pumps. Also, the performance of a large-scale pumps of 10.16 cm diameters were also tested in an aquaculture raceway to determine its effect on the operation. The numerical results were found to be in agreement with the experiments within ±20% which is considered very reasonable for multiphase flow analysis. The present study was found to present a great tool for modelling the airlift pump performance, and potentially proposing new designs.  相似文献   

叶轮出口边对双蜗壳泵压力脉动的影响     

操瑞嘉  孔祥序  周以松  孙静如 《排灌机械工程学报》2020,38(1):32-38

泵的叶轮扫掠蜗壳隔舌时产生的压力脉动是引起船用泵振动噪声的原因之一.为尽可能弱化这一影响,分别设计了叶片出口边与前后盖板基本面垂直和倾斜的2种不同形式叶轮,将其配置在相同的双蜗壳中,通过数值计算与样机试验相结合的手段,对蜗壳内9个不同位置的压力脉动情况进行对比分析.结果表明:出口边倾斜的叶轮相比于出口边垂直的叶轮可明显改善蜗壳内次脉动的“驼峰”现象,且可以进一步降低隔舌处主波动的压力峰值;对蜗壳内2个隔舌稍前的位置,出口边倾斜的叶轮反而会使得该点的压力系数幅值明显增大,且该点主波动的周期数发生改变;2种叶轮出口边的不同形式对蜗壳出口位置的压力脉动的影响基本相同;采用出口边倾斜叶轮对改善因叶轮与隔舌间的液流压力脉动是可行的.  相似文献   

Cohort‐specific variation in juvenile coho salmon habitat use          下载免费PDF全文

Catherine Bradley  Suresh Andrew Sethi  Joshua Ashline  Jonathon Gerken 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2017,26(4):695-706

In this study, we examined summer and fall freshwater rearing habitat use by juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the quickly urbanising Big Lake drainage in south‐central Alaska. Habitat use was assessed by regressing fish count data against habitat survey information across thirty study sites using generalised linear mixed models. Habitat associations were examined by age‐0 and age‐1+ cohorts separately, providing an opportunity to compare habitat use across different juvenile coho salmon life stages during freshwater rearing. Regression results indicated that the age‐0 cohorts were strongly associated with shallow, wide stream reaches with in‐stream vegetation, whereas age‐1+ cohorts were associated with deeper stream reaches. Furthermore, associations between fork length and habitat characteristics suggest cohort‐specific habitat use patterns are distinct from those attributable to fish size. Habitat use information generated from this study is being used to guide optimal fish passage restoration planning in the Big Lake drainage. Evidence for habitat use partitioning by age cohort during freshwater juvenile rearing indicates that pooling age cohorts into a single “juvenile” stage for the purposes of watershed management may mask important habitat use dynamics.  相似文献