Impact of climate change on maize yield in China from 1979 to 2016          下载免费PDF全文

Jian-zhai WU  Jing ZHANG  Zhang-ming GE  Li-wei XING  Shu-qing HAN  Chen SHEN  Fan-tao KONG 《农业科学学报》2021,20(1):289-299

Climate change severely impacts agricultural production, which jeopardizes food security. China is the second largest maize producer in the world and also the largest consumer of maize. Analyzing the impact of climate change on maize yields can provide effective guidance to national and international economics and politics. Panel models are unable to determine the group-wise heteroscedasticity, cross-sectional correlation and autocorrelation of datasets, therefore we adopted the feasible generalized least square(FGLS) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize yields in China from 1979–2016 and got the following results:(1) During the 1979–2016 period, increases in temperature negatively impacted the maize yield of China. For every 1°C increase in temperature, the maize yield was reduced by 5.19 kg 667 m–2(1.7%). Precipitation increased only marginally during this time, and therefore its impact on the maize yield was negligible. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by an insignificant amount of 0.043 kg 667 m–2(0.014%).(2) The impacts of climate change on maize yield differ spatially, with more significant impacts experienced in southern China. In this region, a 1°C increase in temperature resulted in a 7.49 kg 667 m–2 decrease in the maize yield, while the impact of temperature on the maize yield in northern China was insignificant. For every 1 mm increase in precipitation, the maize yield increased by 0.013 kg 667 m–2 in southern China and 0.066 kg 667 m–2 in northern China.(3) The resilience of the maize crop to climate change is strong. The marginal effect of temperature in both southern and northern China during the 1990–2016 period was smaller than that for the 1979–2016 period.  相似文献   

都市餐饮企业的净菜需求影响因素分析——以北京市为例     

洪岚  卢悦  张恪渝 《中国瓜菜》2021,(3)

净菜的广泛使用能提高餐饮企业的出餐率,减少其后厨面积、劳动用工和厨余垃圾。基于北京地区708份餐饮企业净菜需求的问卷调查样本,运用垄断竞争市场理论和二元选择模型分析了影响餐饮企业净菜使用行为的具体因素。研究发现,对净菜了解程度不够和净菜价格偏高是制约餐饮企业使用净菜的主要因素,具有不同个体特征和环境特征的餐饮企业选择净菜的倾向性不同。建议在餐饮业大力开展净菜宣传科普工作;大力扶持净菜加工企业和发展相关技术支撑体系以降低净菜价格。  相似文献   

内蒙古高原紫花苜蓿土壤氮素丰缺指标和推荐施氮量     

米春娇  孙洪仁  王显国  高凯  张玉霞  刘庭玉 《草地学报》2021,29(12):2785-2791

为了给内蒙古高原紫花苜蓿（Medicago sativa L.）测土施氮奠定科学基础，本研究采用“零散实验数据整合法”和“养分平衡-地力差减法”新应用公式，开展了该自然区域紫花苜蓿土壤氮素丰缺指标和推荐施氮量研究。结果表明：内蒙古高原生长第1年紫花苜蓿土壤碱解氮第1~6级丰缺指标为≥48，20~48，8~20，4~8，2~4和<2 mg·kg^-1，土壤全氮第1~5级丰缺指标为≥1.4，0.8~1.4，0.4~0.8，0.2~0.4和<0.2 g·kg^-1，土壤有机质第1~6级丰缺指标为≥17，10~17，6~10，3~6，2~3和<2 g·kg^-1。当紫花苜蓿目标产量9~18 t·hm^-2、氮肥利用率40%时，内蒙古高原紫花苜蓿第1~6级土壤推荐施氮量分别为0，68~135，135~270，203~405，270~540和338~675 kg·hm^-2。  相似文献   

青海省祁连圆柏天然林单木生物量模型构建     

陈志林  李国兴  侯晓巍  李智华  郝家田  谭智渊  向安民 《西北林学院学报》2021,36(1):204-207

利用祁连圆柏整株生物量与生长指标数据，为估算祁连圆柏林的生物量估算提供参考。通过野外调查，共获取了63株祁连圆柏天然林样木生物量与生长指标实测数据。用其中50株样木数据进行回归模拟，用其余的13株样木数据对模型可靠性进行检验，构建器官生物量与生长指标间的回归模型。结果表明，祁连圆柏单木水平下，树干生物量模型的R²_adj为0.96，均方根、模型有效性和残差系数分别为0.50、0.85和0.05；枝条生物量模型的R²_adj为0.897，均方根、模型有效性和残差系数分别为0.69、0.80和-0.66；叶生物量模型的R²_adj为0.61，均方根、模型有效性和残差系数分别为0.54、0.86和0.15；根生物量模型的R²_adj为0.93，均方根、模型有效性和残差系数分别为0.12、0.997 和-0.01。在调查数据范围内构建的模型较好地反映了祁连圆柏生物量与生长指标间的关系，形式简单、使用方便；与实测值相比，树干与叶生物量模拟值偏小，枝和根偏大。  相似文献   

数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析     

李兴男  金江跃  降亚楠 《排灌机械工程学报》2021,39(2):179-185

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.  相似文献   

Determination of critical nitrogen dilution curve based on leaf area index for winter wheat in the Guanzhong Plain,Northwest China     

Sheng-cai QIANG  Fu-cang ZHANG  Miles Dyck  Yan ZHANG  You-zhen XIANG  Jun-liang FAN 《农业科学学报》2019,18(10):2369-2380

Excessive use of nitrogen(N) fertilizers in agricultural systems increases the cost of production and risk of environmental pollution. Therefore, determination of optimum N requirements for plant growth is necessary. Previous studies mostly established critical N dilution curves based on aboveground dry matter(DM) or leaf dry matter(LDM) and stem dry matter(SDM), to diagnose the N nutrition status of the whole plant. As these methods are time consuming, we investigated the more rapidly determined leaf area index(LAI) method to establish the critical nitrogen(N_c) dilution curve, and the curve was used to diagnose plant N status for winter wheat in Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China. Field experiments were conducted using four N fertilization levels(0, 105, 210 and 315 kg ha-1) applied to six wheat cultivars in the 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 growing seasons. LAI, DM, plant N concentration(PNC) and grain yield were determined. Data points from four cultivars were used for establishing the N_c curve and data points from the remaining two cultivars were used for validating the curve. The N_c dilution curve was validated for N-limiting and non-N-limiting growth conditions and there was good agreement between estimated and observed values. The N nutrition index(NNI) ranged from 0.41 to 1.25 and the accumulated plant N deficit(N_(and)) ranged from 60.38 to –17.92 kg ha~(-1) during the growing season. The relative grain yield was significantly affected by NNI and was adequately described with a parabolic function. The N_c curve based on LAI can be adopted as an alternative and more rapid approach to diagnose plant N status to support N fertilization decisions during the vegetative growth of winter wheat in Guanzhong Plain in Northwest China.  相似文献   

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究     

张晓婷  刘培顺  王学芳 《山东林业科技》2020,50(1):1-6,40

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。  相似文献   

The Use of a Metabolic Disorder Index as a Predictor for Metabolic Eliminations in Endurance Horses     

《Journal of Equine Veterinary Science》2017

The equine endurance race involves both aerobic and anaerobic metabolisms of the horse. The intense physical activity over an extended period often causes susceptible horses to develop metabolic signs or problems resulting in elimination from races. Thus, the objective of this study was to develop a method for prediction and validation of a metabolic disorder index (MDI) to be used before endurance races. Three hundred seventy-five Arabian (n = 152) and Arabian cross (n = 223) endurance horses aged from 6 to 15 years and weighing between 350 and 450 kg were selected for the study in Malaysia. Blood samples were collected at pre- and post-race periods. The significant (P < .05) findings in horses with metabolic disorder were packed cell volume (0.50 ± 0.06 LL−1), creatine kinase (1,275.89 ± 121.45 UL−1), interleukin-6 (2.01 ± 0.89 ng/mL), decreased glutathione reductase (26.57 ± 3.95 ng/mL), and chloride (94.98 ± 8.12 mmol/L). A new method called MDI was developed as a predictor for horses with the potential to develop metabolic disorders in endurance races. The MDI indicated a higher value greater than 5.5 for those eliminated and lower value below 5.5 for those that completed the race successfully, this proved to be accurate in the prediction of metabolic disorder in endurance horses. The MDI is an innovative and simple method used as a prediction method that will assist the equine endurance society to reduce the rate of elimination and to safeguard against serious medical problems during endurance races in the tropics.  相似文献   

Cohort‐specific variation in juvenile coho salmon habitat use          下载免费PDF全文

Catherine Bradley  Suresh Andrew Sethi  Joshua Ashline  Jonathon Gerken 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2017,26(4):695-706

In this study, we examined summer and fall freshwater rearing habitat use by juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the quickly urbanising Big Lake drainage in south‐central Alaska. Habitat use was assessed by regressing fish count data against habitat survey information across thirty study sites using generalised linear mixed models. Habitat associations were examined by age‐0 and age‐1+ cohorts separately, providing an opportunity to compare habitat use across different juvenile coho salmon life stages during freshwater rearing. Regression results indicated that the age‐0 cohorts were strongly associated with shallow, wide stream reaches with in‐stream vegetation, whereas age‐1+ cohorts were associated with deeper stream reaches. Furthermore, associations between fork length and habitat characteristics suggest cohort‐specific habitat use patterns are distinct from those attributable to fish size. Habitat use information generated from this study is being used to guide optimal fish passage restoration planning in the Big Lake drainage. Evidence for habitat use partitioning by age cohort during freshwater juvenile rearing indicates that pooling age cohorts into a single “juvenile” stage for the purposes of watershed management may mask important habitat use dynamics.  相似文献   

同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应模型筛选     

万正林  周艳霞  武鹏  邓俭英  李立志  龙明华 《热带作物学报》2019,40(10):2083-2090

为了筛选出最适合黑皮冬瓜Benincasa hispida (Thunb.) Cogn.的光合光响应模型,为其育种提供理论依据,以同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜为试验材料,对8种经典的光合光响应模型适用性进行了比较分析。结果表明：二次多项式能够表现出光抑制情况,但在拟合过程中出现暗呼吸速率为正值、光补偿点为负值及无法解释当光强达到饱和后光合速率快速下降的问题;直角双曲线、非直角双曲线及指数函数Ⅰ、指数函数Ⅱ无法直接求取光饱和点、光补偿点,结合常用的光饱和点的计算方法得到的光饱和点与实测值均存在较大的偏差,且指数函数Ⅱ在计算光饱和点时表现出明显的人为性,也无法拟合光抑制情况,但4种模型拟合得到的光补偿点均与实测值相差不大;指数修正模型因系数β为负值,无法求取四倍体黑皮冬瓜材料的光饱和点和最大净光合速率,且拟合得到的四倍体黑皮冬瓜的光补偿点明显低于实测值;直角双曲线修正模型计算得到的暗呼吸速率及二倍体黑皮冬瓜的光饱和点明显低于实测值,但获得的四倍体及其二倍体的最大净光合速率与实测值最接近,说明其在拟合最大净光合速率上有优势;整体上分段函数计算得到的黑皮冬瓜的各光合参数与实测值最为接近,与实测值的平均相对误差最小,也能很好的拟合发生光抑制部分的光响应曲线。分段函数拟合同源四倍体及其原二倍体黑皮冬瓜光合光响应曲线效果较其他模型效果好,分段函数模型为黑皮冬瓜最适合的光合光响应模型。  相似文献