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Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛(简记为MCMC)模拟的参数贝叶斯估计,对改进的广义帕累托分布(简记为MGPD)模型进行了优化,并利用该模型得到了地质灾害损失的在险损失值(简记为VaR)和条件损失值(简记为CVaR).以湖南娄底市地质灾害损失数据进行实证分析及模型适应性检验,结果表明:优化后的模型不仅具有很好的极值数据描述能力,而且具有较强的适用性. 相似文献
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基于信号博弈的阳澄湖大闸蟹绿色标签市场应用分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
水产品绿色标签对消费者来说是高质量的信号,对卖家来说则是卖出高价的资本.但是欺诈行为的存在损害了消费者和其他卖家的利益,扰乱了市场秩序.以阳澄湖大闸蟹为例,通过信号博彝理论,对螃蟹市场中关卖双方的消费行为进行博彝分析,得到了精炼贝叶斯Nash均衡. 相似文献
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结合卫河自身特点和地理环境建立13项指标体系,运用基于熵权的模糊数学模型对其脆弱性进行评价。结果表明,鹤壁的脆弱性为0.69,焦作为0.55,新乡为0.39,安阳为0.36,濮阳为0.23。最后针对评价结果分析了原因,提出了合理性建议和措施。 相似文献
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A. H. Khaltabadi Farahani H. Mohammadi M. H. Moradi H. A. Ghasemi 《British poultry science》2020,61(3):251-257
ABSTRACT 1. Theoretically, haplotype blocks might be a more suitable alternative to SNP genotypes as they are usually better at capturing multi-allelic QTL effects, compared to individual SNP genotypes in genome-wide association studies. The objectives of this study were to identify genomic regions related to egg weight traits by Bayesian methods (BayesA, BayesB, and BayesN) that fit fixed-length haplotypes using GenSel software. 2. Genotypes at 294,705 SNPs, that were common on a 600K Affymetrix chip, were phased for an egg-laying hen population of 1,063 birds. Recorded traits included first egg weight (FEW) and average egg weight at 28, 36, 56, 66, 72 and 80 weeks of age. 2. Fitting 1Mb haplotypes from BayesB resulted in the highest proportion of genetic variance explained for the egg weight traits. Based on the trait, the genetic variance explained by each marker ranged from 27% to 76%. 3. Different haplotype windows associated with egg weight traits only explained a small percentage of the genetic variance. 4. The top one 1-Mb window on GGA1 explained approximately 4.05% of total genetic variance for the FEW. Candidate genes, including PRKAR2B, HMGA2, LEMD3, GRIP1, EHBP1, MAP3K7, and MYH were identified for egg weight traits. 5. Several genomic regions, potentially associated with egg weight traits, were identified, some of which overlapped with known genes and previously reported QTL regions for egg production traits. 相似文献
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