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1.
以海南岛为研究区域,选用5个大气环流模式(GCMs)1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据,使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础,应用系统误差修订(修正值法或比值法)和多模式集合平均方法(贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW),训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上,分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,未来海南岛近期(2020−2059年)和远期(2060−2099年)农业水热资源,包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明:GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异,且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃,高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃,逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订,可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性,BMA与EW的修订结果相似,均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后,最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06;均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm;较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高,高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区,年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近,1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上,RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快,RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓,RCP2.6情景较为平缓,远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局,南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加,西部和中部降水变率减少,在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变,农作物适宜种植面积扩大,会对农业生产带来巨大挑战,应提前布局,做好趋利避害。 相似文献
2.
GENERALCoNDlTloNABoUTCLI-MATECHANGEINHElLoNGJIANGPRoVINCEDtlrlngthepasscdll)()}ears(l88l-l`)8(j)ors().tllctcndenc}'ofmcanairtc111pcraturcincrcasct\ithfluctuationcl11ergcdin\ariousrcglonsofHcllonViangproxincc.Airtcmpcra-turcinl98()s-rcachcdtl1emaxil11un1uithinthcpasscdll)()y'cars.Thisphcl1ol11enonaccordcd``iththctcndenc}'ofglobalclil11ate\"ar1ni11g.Thel11eanairtc111peralurcil1tl1creccl1tl()}car(l()8()-l()8`))incrcascdb}l).6"Cascom-pal-cd\`ltl1tl1atll1tl1clbrl11er3())'carsacc… 相似文献
3.
4.
INTRODUCTIONIntheworldoftoday,theglobalclimatechangeanditsinfluenceonecologyhavebe-comeaveryimportantproblem,towhichmanyscientists,governnentleadersandordinarypcoplepaycloseattentionI1-'].Inl979,theWorldClimateResearchProgram(WCP)waslaiddowninthefirstworldclimatemeeting.lnl99(),thesecondworldclimatemeetingwasconvcl1edinGencva,andalltl1eexpertsagreedthattheglobalwarmlngwillbeextremelyseriousdisasterthananynatUralcalamityever.Attl1eMectingof"WorldEnvironmentandDevelopment,"holdinBrazil… 相似文献
5.
Latvian legislation demands that forest protection belts are established around all cities and towns. The main goal of a protection belt is to provide suitable opportunities for recreation to urban dwellers and to minimise any negative impacts caused by urban areas on the surrounding environment. Legislation states the main principles to be adopted, which include the maximum area of protection belts, their integration in territorial development plans and restrictions placed on forest management activities. The largest part of the forest area around Riga is owned by the municipality of Riga, which, as a result, has two competing interests: to satisfy the recreational needs of the inhabitants of Riga, and to maximise the income from its property. In order to compile sufficient background information to solve this problem, the Board of Forests of Riga Municipality initiated the preparation of a proposal for the designation of a new protection belt.The proposal was based on the development and application of a theoretical framework developed during the 1980s. The analysis of the recreational value of the forest (5 classes of attractiveness) was carried out based on categories of forest type, dominant tree species, dominant age, stand density, distance from urban areas and the presence of attractive objects. Information was derived from forest inventory databases, digital forest maps and topographic maps. Additional information was digitised and processed using ArcView GIS 3.2. Local foresters were asked about the recreation factors unique to different locations, such as the number of visitors and the main recreation activities. From a recreational point of view and taking into account legal restrictions and development plans for the Riga region, it was proposed to create three types of zones in the forest: a protection belt, visually sensitive areas and non-restricted areas. 相似文献
6.
北京地区沙尘天气的气候特征分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文利用1954-2001年北京地区(20个气象站)逐月沙尘资料,重点对北京地区沙尘天气的空间分布特征、沙尘日数的年代变化规律、沙尘日数的月变化进行分析;分析了近三年北京地区出现沙尘天气特点及成因;同时对近48年的沙尘出现日数变化规律进行了小波分析。 相似文献
7.
为了积极应对气候变化,促进低碳经济发展,分析了当前应对气候变化立法方面的研究进展,认为尽管取得了一定进展,但现有法律既不能满足我国气候外交的需求,也不足以担当气候治理的重任,我国还缺乏系统性专门性的应对气候变化法律.为了应对气候变化的挑战,必须充分整合国内外应对气候变化立法方面的科技资源,以保证我国气候外交和气候治理战略的科学性. 相似文献
8.
Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas and the huge CH4 fluxes emitted from paddy fields can prejudice the eco-compatibility of rice cultivation. CH4 production in submerged rice crops is known to be highly influenced by water temperature. Hence, lowering ponding water temperature (LPWT) could be an option to mitigate CH4 emissions from paddy environments when it is possible either to irrigate with slightly colder water or to increase ponding water depth. However, paddy soil is a complex environment in which many processes are simultaneously influenced by temperature, leading to a difficult prediction of LPWT effects. For this reason, LPWT efficiency is here theoretically investigated with a one-dimensional process-based model that simulates the vertical and temporal dynamics of water temperature in soil and the fate of chemical compounds that influence CH4 emissions. The model is validated with literature measured data of CH4 emissions from a paddy field under time-variable temperature regime. Based on modeling results, LPWT appears promising since the simulated reduction of CH4 emissions reaches about −12% and −49% for an LPWT equal to −5 °C during the ripening stage only (last 30 days of growing season, when rice is less sensitive to temperature variations) and −2 °C over the whole growing season, respectively. LPWT affects CH4 emissions either directly (decreasing methanogenic activity), indirectly (decreasing activity of bacteria using alternative electron acceptors), or both. The encouraging results provide the theoretical ground for further laboratory and field studies aimed to investigate the LPWT feasibility in paddy environments. 相似文献
9.
Extreme droughts and heat waves due to climate change may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. During November 2010 to August 2011, the Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, received only 39.6 mm of precipitation (vs. the historical avg. of 373 mm) and experienced the hottest summer since record keeping began in 1911. Several enzyme activities (EAs) important in biogeochemical cycling were evaluated in two soils (a loam and a sandy loam at 0–10 cm) with a management history of monoculture (continuous cotton) or rotation (cotton and sorghum or millet). Samplings occurred under the most extreme drought and heat conditions (July 2011), after precipitation resulted in a reduction in a drought severity index (March 2012), and 12 months after the initial sampling (July 2012; loam only). Eight out of ten EAs, were significantly higher in July 2011 compared to March 2012 for some combinations of soil type and management history. Among these eight EAs, enzymes key to C (β-glucosidase, β-glucosaminidase) and P cycling (phosphodiesterase, acid and alkaline phosphatases) were significantly higher (19–79%) in July 2011 than in March 2012 for both management histories regardless of the soil type (P > 0.05). When comparing all sampling times, the activities of alkaline phosphatase, aspartase and urease (rotation only) showed this trend: July 2011 > March 2012 > July 2012. Activities of phosphodiesterase, acid phosphatase, α-galactosidase, β-glucosidase and β-glucosaminidase were higher in July 2011 than July 2012 in at least one of the two management histories. Total C was reduced significantly from July 2011 to March 2012 in the rotation for both soils. Only the activities of arylsulfatase (avg. 36%) and asparaginase showed an increase from July 2011 to March 2012 for both soil types, which may indicate they have a different origin/location than the other enzymes. EAs continued to be a fingerprint of the soil management history (i.e., higher EAs in the rotation than in monoculture) during the drought/heat wave. This study provided some of the first evidence of the adverse effects of a natural, extreme drought and heat wave on soil quality in agroecosystems as indicated by EAs involved in biogeochemical cycling. 相似文献
10.
Changing an urban environment and replacing vegetated surfaces with low albedo materials is one of the reasons for increasing temperatures in an urban environment and consequently also one of the key causes of urban heat island effects. In this study, an experimental investigation at the micro-scale and also a numerical simulation at the macro-scale of a typical urban environment in Adelaide were conducted to estimate the potential for mitigating the UHI effect. The results showed that existing low albedo materials such as asphalt, metal roofs and brick pavements contribute to the heat island potential. Also, urban development and a lack of natural vegetation contribute to increased temperatures in cities. The ability of two types of extensive and intensive green roofs to reduce the surrounding micro-climate temperature were monitored. The results showed that they have significant cooling effects in summer time and could behave as an insulation layer to keep buildings warmer in the winter. Furthermore, different scenarios of adding green roofs to the Adelaide urban environment were investigated using the Envi–MET model. The scenario modelling of adding green roofs in a typical urban area in Adelaide, Australia, supported the hypothesis that this can lead to reductions in energy consumption in the Adelaide urban environment. Also an increased use of other water sensitive urban design technologies such as green walls and street trees together with the adoption of high albedo materials is recommended for achieving the optimum efficiency in terms of reducing urban temperatures and mitigating urban heat island effects. 相似文献