Geostatistical interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs     

《European Journal of Agronomy》2016

Many crop growth models require daily meteorological data. Consequently, model simulations can be obtained only at a limited number of locations, i.e. at weather stations with long-term records of daily data. To estimate the potential crop production at country level, we present in this study a geostatistical approach for spatial interpolation and aggregation of crop growth model outputs. As case study, we interpolated, simulated and aggregated crop growth model outputs of sorghum and millet in West-Africa. We used crop growth model outputs to calibrate a linear regression model using environmental covariates as predictors. The spatial regression residuals were investigated for spatial correlation. The linear regression model and the spatial correlation of residuals together were used to predict theoretical crop yield at all locations using kriging with external drift. A spatial standard deviation comes along with this prediction, indicating the uncertainty of the prediction. In combination with land use data and country borders, we summed the crop yield predictions to determine an area total. With spatial stochastic simulation, we estimated the uncertainty of that total production potential as well as the spatial cumulative distribution function. We compared our results with the prevailing agro-ecological Climate Zones approach used for spatial aggregation. Linear regression could explain up to 70% of the spatial variation of the yield. In three out of four cases the regression residuals showed spatial correlation. The potential crop production per country according to the Climate Zones approach was in all countries and cases except one within the 95% prediction interval as obtained after yield aggregation. We concluded that the geostatistical approach can estimate a country’s crop production, including a quantification of uncertainty. In addition, we stress the importance of the use of geostatistics to create tools for crop modelling scientists to explore relationships between yields and spatial environmental variables and to assist policy makers with tangible results on yield gaps at multiple levels of spatial aggregation.  相似文献   

基于GIS的精确农业合理采样与施肥间距研究   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9  

吴才聪  马成林  张书慧  陈秀万 《农业机械学报》2004,35(2):80-83

在GIS软件平台下对采样点进行行列删减,人为减小采样密度,运用地统计学方法制作养分分布图,并与原始采样方案进行形状和面积对比,选取合理的删减方案作为土壤养分的合理采样方案.碱解氮、速效磷和速效钾的合理采样间距分别为64 m×51 m、32 m×76 m和32 m×25 m.为综合考虑多种养分,提出3条综合采样测土原则.提出了调整施肥间距的实现方法,自动变量施肥宜采用"大网格采样、小网格施肥",手动变量施肥则宜采用"小网格采样、大网格施肥".试验表明提出的方法实现了定性与定量相结合来研究土壤采样间距.  相似文献   

邛海盆地土壤氮素空间变异特征与影响因素研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

胡玉福  邓良基  肖海华  舒向阳  黄成毅  罗澜芳 《农业机械学报》2015,46(4):132-140

以西昌市邛海盆地为研究区域,随机均匀布点采集386个耕作层土壤样点,分析化验土壤理化性质,运用地统计学方法和GIS技术研究邛海盆地表层土壤氮素含量的空间变异特征,利用方差分析、缓冲区分析和回归分析定量分析区域内土壤氮素空间变异的影响因素。研究结果表明,研究区表层土壤全氮和速效氮含量分别为(1.85±0.51)g/kg和(138.5±47.7)mg/kg,属较丰富水平,变异系数分别为27.52%和32.24%,属中等差异强度;土壤全氮和速效氮具有中等程度的空间相关性,空间变异均以随机变异为主,具有各向异性特征,在西北-东南方向上空间变异相对剧烈;研究区土壤全氮和速效氮含量总体上呈条带状或斑块状分布特征,高值区主要位于西昌市的东南郊区,并以此高值中心向南、向东和向北3个方向逐步递减,低值区主要出现在邛海北面近湖岸地带。影响因素分析结果表明,土地利用方式、土壤母质、土壤质地、土壤p H值、城镇、河流、邛海湖对土壤全氮和速效氮空间变异具有显著影响,而道路对土壤氮素空间变异影响不显著。  相似文献   

Do coarse resolution U.S. presettlement land survey records adequately represent the spatial pattern of individual tree species?     

Yi-Chen Wang  Chris P. S. Larsen 《Landscape Ecology》2006,21(7):1003-1017

Presettlement land survey records (PLSRs) are a valuable and unique source of information for the reconstruction of presettlement forest patterns. The purpose of this study was to determine whether coarsely resolved PLSRs are adequate to characterize the spatial patterns of individual tree species over large areas. The General Land Office Survey records of the PLSRs of Minnesota were used and species selected in the analysis were based on their abundances and degrees of clustering. A geostatistical procedure was developed to analyze observations of bearing-tree point-locations, at progressively coarser resolutions from 1×1 mile to 24×24 miles, to create spatially continuous probability surfaces of species occurrences across the landscape. Statistical and visual analyses of the geostatistical predictions indicated that coarsely resolved PLSRs, as coarse as 24×24 miles, can adequately represent the spatial pattern of individual species over large areas. Mean errors in predictions increased as more coarsely resolved data were used, primarily in response to the decreased abundance of a species and minorly in response to the degree of spatial clustering of a species. The results indicate that coarsely resolved township-level data of 6×6 miles can be used for presettlement vegetation reconstruction of large areas of several counties.  相似文献   

A citywide survey of the pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa spatial distribution in Orléans (France)     

《Urban Forestry & Urban Greening》2016

There is a growing recognition that urban trees provide various valuable benefits and services such as enhanced human wellbeing. However, they also have a cost in terms of public health either directly (allergies) or by harboring species representing health risk for humans. This paper focuses on such a forest insect species, the pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa. Its caterpillars develop gregariously during winter in a conspicuous silk nest in coniferous hosts. When disturbed, the larvae release urticating hairs that cause human or animal serious health problems. The purpose of our survey was to (1) inventory all individual trees belonging to potential host species and estimate the density of T. pityocampa (2) assess the spatial pattern of the insect population at the city scale. We conducted an exhaustive inventory of potential coniferous host trees in five municipalities (ca. 5000 ha) in the north of Orléans, France. Each tree was identified, geo-referenced and the number of moth nests it hosted was counted. A total of 9321 urban trees representing 11 coniferous taxonomic units were investigated. The distribution of T. pityocampa exhibited a marked spatial structure citywide. Geostatistics allowed to draw risk maps revealing strong patchiness. We provide the first estimate of T. pityocampa host tree preference in an urban context and found that Pinus nigra, P. pinaster and P. sylvestris were the most attacked trees. We also report numerous cases of T. pityocampa occurrence on the exotic ornamental Himalayan cedar Cedrus deodara. The management implications of our findings are two-fold: (1) risk maps constitute a useful framework for communication and public information, and can help developing control strategies; (2) some species frequently used for ornamental purposes are poor quality hosts regarding T. pityocampa and should therefore be preferred in public place usually frequented by vulnerable people (schools, nurseries, hospitals).  相似文献   

西北干旱区农田春小麦蒸散量的空间插值方法     

王春梅  孟庆岩  占玉林  刘苗  王靓  Tamas Jancso 《农业机械学报》2014,45(11):172-179

综合运用传统统计分析方法和地质统计分析方法,研究了西北旱区春小麦蒸散量在不同生育阶段的时空变异特征,并分析了试验区表层土壤储水量和叶面积指数对春小麦蒸散量的影响关系,通过分析比较,筛选表层土壤储水量为协同因子,并将其应用到试验区春小麦蒸散量的空间插值研究中。研究结果表明:在所研究的条件下,即使外观较为均匀、面积相对较小的农田,春小麦蒸散量仍具有较高的空间变异(变异系数范围0.328~0.495);当降雨入渗深度小于20 cm时,表层土壤储水量(0~20 cm)是影响研究区春小麦蒸散量变异的主要因子,春小麦不同生育期累积蒸散量与表层土壤储水量变化的相关系数在0.8~0.9之间,远大于春小麦累积蒸散量与叶面积指数的相关系数;基于表层土壤储水量的蒸散量协同克里金空间插值分析与地面实测结果相比,仅42个蒸散量地面采样数据即可保证研究区春小麦蒸散量估计精度高于90%。  相似文献   

Remedies for pseudoreplication   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Russell B. Millar  Marti J. Anderson 《Fisheries Research》2004,70(2-3):397-407

Pseudoreplication is the failure of a statistical analysis to properly incorporate the true structure of randomness present in the data. It has been well documented and studied in the ecological literature but has received little attention in the fisheries literature. Avoiding pseudoreplication in analyses of fisheries data can be difficult due to the complexity of the statistical procedures required. However, recent developments in statistical methodology are decreasing the extent to which pseudoreplication has to be tolerated. Seven examples are given here, beginning with simple design-based remedies and progressing to more challenging examples including the model-based remedies of mixed-effects modelling, generalized linear mixed models, state-space models, and geostatistics.  相似文献   

基于支持向量回归与地统计学的农民收入预测     

张弘杨  陈渊  袁哲明 《安徽农业科学》2014,(30):10759-10761,10783

农民收入既受其自身动态时序特性的影响,又与国家政策、农产品产量、天气等多种人为因素和自然因素关系密切,是一种典型的多维时间序列数据.该研究以国民总收入、乡村人口等11个可能与农民收入相关的影响因子为自变量,农村居民家庭平均每人纯收入为因变量,基于1982～2011年我国相关统计数据,采用支持向量回归与地统计学非线性时间序列预测模型对农民收入进行分析.结果表明：非线性时间序列预测模型大幅度提高了农民收入预测精度;农民的主要收入来源已不是粮食生产,而是向其他农业生产、进城务工等方面转移.  相似文献   

Seasonal changes in the spatial structures of N₂O, CO₂, and CH₄ fluxes from Acacia mangium plantation soils in Indonesia     

Ryota Konda  Seiichi Ohta  Joko Heriyanto 《Soil biology & biochemistry》2010,42(9):1512-1522

We evaluated the spatial structures of nitrous oxide (N₂O), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and methane (CH₄) fluxes in an Acacia mangium plantation stand in Sumatra, Indonesia, in drier (August) and wetter (March) seasons. A 60 × 100-m plot was established in an A. mangium plantation that included different topographical elements of the upper plateau, lower plateau, upper slope and foot slope. The plot was divided into 10 × 10-m grids and gas fluxes and soil properties were measured at 77 grid points at 10-m intervals within the plot. Spatial structures of the gas fluxes and soil properties were identified using geostatistical analyses. Averaged N₂O and CO₂ fluxes in the wetter season (1.85 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ and 4.29 g C m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively) were significantly higher than those in the drier season (0.55 mg N m⁻² d⁻¹ and 2.73 g C m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively) and averaged CH₄ uptake rates in the drier season (−0.62 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) were higher than those in the wetter season (−0.24 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹). These values of N₂O fluxes in A. mangium soils were higher than those reported for natural forest soils in Sumatra, while CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes were in the range of fluxes reported for natural forest soils. Seasonal differences in these gas fluxes appears to be controlled by soil water content and substrate availability due to differing precipitation and mineralization of litter between seasons. N₂O fluxes had strong spatial dependence with a range of about 18 m in both the drier and wetter seasons. Topography was associated with the N₂O fluxes in the wetter season with higher and lower fluxes on the foot slope and on the upper plateau, respectively, via controlling the anaerobic-aerobic conditions in the soils. In the drier season, however, we could not find obvious topographic influences on the spatial patterns of N₂O fluxes and they may have depended on litter amount distribution. CO₂ fluxes had no spatial dependence in both seasons, but the topographic influence was significant in the drier season with lowest fluxes on the foot slope, while there was no significant difference between topographic positions in the wetter season. The distributions of litter amount and soil organic matter were possibly associated with CO₂ fluxes through their effects on microbial activities and fine root distribution in this A. mangium plantation.  相似文献   

基于地质统计学影像纹理的石河子地区化控期棉花长势监测   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

廖楚江  王长耀  李红  杨朋润 《农业工程学报》2006,22(8):135-139

化学调控是棉花生长期间的一个重要环节，在较大区域尺度上，化控常常整齐划一，依固定的量而行，忽视其普遍存在的空间差异，结果导致某些棉田投入过量或投入不足，在精细农业所倡导的基于特定场的农业投入这一框架下，为辅助决策者制定有针对性的棉田化控方案，该文提出了应用地质统计学影像纹理进行对化控棉花长势监测，通过借助地质统计学方法在分析空间结构变化上的优势，强化遥感影像上不同长势棉田间的差别，提高样本选择的分离度和长势空间分类精度。实验结果表明，运用变异函数纹理结合光谱波段的最大似然分类方法能够很好地界定棉花长势的不同类型，总分类精度达90.53%，证明了应用地质统计学影像纹理方法在针对化控的棉花长势监测上的有效性。  相似文献