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This study presents a multi-disciplinary decision-support tool, which integrates geo-statistics, social network analysis (SNA), spatial-stochastic spread model, economic analysis and mapping/visualization capabilities for the evaluation of the sanitary and socio-economic impact of livestock diseases under diverse epidemiologic scenarios. We illustrate the applicability of this tool using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peru as an example. The approach consisted on a flexible, multistep process that may be easily adapted based on data availability. The first module (mI) uses a geo-statistical approach for the estimation (if needed) of the distribution and abundance of susceptible population (in the example here, cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and camelids) at farm-level in the region or country of interest (Peru). The second module (mII) applies SNA for evaluating the farm-to-farm contact patterns and for exploring the structure and frequency of between-farm animal movements as a proxy for potential disease introduction or spread. The third module (mIII) integrates mI–II outputs into a spatial-stochastic model that simulates within- and between-farm FMD-transmission. The economic module (mIV) connects outputs from mI–III to provide an estimate of associated direct and indirect costs. A visualization module (mV) is also implemented to graph and map the outputs of module I–IV. After 1000 simulated epidemics, the mean (95% probability interval) number of outbreaks, infected animals, epidemic duration, and direct costs were 37 (1, 1164), 2152 (1, 13, 250), 63 days (0, 442), and US$ 1.2 million (1072, 9.5 million), respectively. Spread of disease was primarily local (<4.5 km), but geolocation and type of index farm strongly influenced the extent and spatial patterns of an epidemic. The approach is intended to support decisions in the last phase of the FMD eradication program in Peru, in particular to inform and support the implementation of risk-based surveillance and livestock insurance systems that may help to prevent and control potential FMD virus incursions into Peru.  相似文献   
3.
We hypothesized that change in the annual population size of guano‐producing seabirds (cormorant, Phalacrocorax bougainvillii; booby, Sula variegata; pelican, Pelecanus thagus) is a response to changes in primary and secondary production of the Peruvian upwelling system. We tested this hypothesis by modeling nitrate input through upwelling to the upper layers of the ocean off Peru between 6° and 14°S using data on wind stress and sea surface temperature. The model predicted the amount of carbon fixed by primary production each year from 1925 to 2000, which was then apportioned to the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) biomass and ultimately to the seabird population and the anchovy fishery, the largest single‐species fishery on Earth. The model predicted a marked increase in primary production as a consequence of increasing wind stress. It overestimated the anchovy biomass after the collapse of the fishery in 1972, but closely predicted the growth of seabird populations from 1925 to the mid‐1960s, and their decline thereafter, explaining about 94% of the variation in seabird numbers from 1925 to 2000. The model indicates the seabirds consumed 14.4% of the available anchovies and, thus, that seabirds consumed 2.3% of the new production, before the development of the anchovy fishery, and only 2.2% of the available anchovies and 0.3% of the new production after the development of the fishery. The model results clarify the roles that environmental and anthropogenic factors may have had in regulating the guano‐producing seabird populations. It indicates that the growth of seabird populations from 1925 to 1955 was likely a response to increased productivity of the Peruvian upwelling system and that the subsequent drastic decline in seabird abundance was likely due to competition for food with the fishery, which caught ~85% of the anchovies, which otherwise would have been available for the seabirds. This model also shows that an increase in oceanic primary production promotes reproductive success and population growth in higher trophic level organisms.  相似文献   
4.
茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)是短生命周期物种,广泛分布在东太平洋海域。其资源大小和分布受不同时空尺度的气候变化影响。根据我国鱿钓船生产数据,结合卫星遥感获取的环境资料,利用信息增益技术对东太平洋智利和秘鲁外海两个海区茎柔鱼栖息环境进行比较分析。可以得出,智利和秘鲁外海茎柔鱼中心渔场分布对应的适宜表温(SST)范围分别是15~23℃和16~25℃,且每月最高作业频次对应的SST值具有明显的季节性特征,与SST平均值关系密切。信息增益技术结果表明,智利外海和秘鲁外海影响中心渔场分布的关键环境因子基本相同,主要为SST、55米层水温(T55)、表层至55米层的水温梯度(G0-55)。研究认为,不同海域表征茎柔鱼中心渔场的主要环境因子是有差异的,这一差异主要由其海洋环境大背景所决定。  相似文献   
5.
During the 1990s, the Government of Peru began to aggressivelyprivatize agriculture. The government stopped loaning money to farmers' cooperatives and closed the government rice-buying company. The government even rented out most of its researchstations and many senior scientists lost their jobs. As part of this trend, the government eliminated its seed certification agency. Instead, private seed certification committees were set up with USAID funding and technical advise from a US university. The committees were supposed to become self-financing (bycertifying seed grown by small seed producers) and each committee was supposed to encourage the development of a group of small seed-producing firms, clustered around the seedcertification agency. The amazing thing is that many of the seed committees actually accomplished these goals. The agronomists who staffed the committees stood by their jobs,even after US funding ended, even though the committees' income was (at best) modest, and occasionally under the threat of violence from the extreme left. Some seed certificationcommittees failed and others did not. Some of the problems with Peruvian agricultural liberalization can be seen in regard to the seed programs of maize, rice, potatoes, and beans. For example, the government abandoned most research, yet could not resist creating certain distortions in the seed market (e.g.,buying large amounts of seed and distributing them for political ends).  相似文献   
6.
秘鲁外海茎柔鱼胴长组成及性成熟初步研究   总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7  
根据2001年6-8月我国鱿钓船对秘鲁外海(79°~90° W、5°~16° S)茎柔鱼资源的调查,对其胴长组成和性成熟作了初步分析.结果表明,渔获物胴长范围为200~880 mm,优势胴长为240~480 mm,约占总数的80%左右.依据胴长组成和性成熟度,调查海域茎柔鱼存在3个群体.雌雄性别比为2.52∶1.00.渔获物中,雄性个体的性成熟度高于雌性,雄性Ⅲ和Ⅳ期占总数84.3%,雌性仅占47.5%.同一性成熟阶段,雌性个体的胴长范围均大于雄性.经估算,雌性和雄性个体的初次性成熟胴长分别为374 mm、228 mm.  相似文献   
7.
Phosphorus forms and content were studied in soils of the Lomas de Arequipa (Atacama desert, Peru) using a fractionation method. These Lomas are small hills periodically submitted to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which causes heavy rainfall. Sample soils were randomly selected in five landscape types characterized by vegetation: cactaceae (Cac), cactaceae and herbaceous (CacHerb), shrubs (Shr), trees with cover < 60% (Tree) and shrubs or trees with cover > 60%) (ShrTree). All the soils were strongly acidic and classified as loamy sand, sandy loam or silt loam. Organic carbon content was under 1% in Cac or CacHerb, then increased strongly in ShrTree (6.50%). Considering phosphorus, all the forms (labile as well resistant forms) increased markedly from Cac soils to ShrTree soils. In all the soils, the labile forms (Resin-P: range 45–105 μg g− 1; NaHCO3-Pi: 23–123 μg g− 1; or NaHCO3-Po: 10–122 μg g− 1) were very high. These high phosphorus contents were attributed to the specific climatic conditions of the Lomas that feature a long period of vegetation dormancy (very dry period) and a short period of growth, following ENSO-associated precipitation. We suggested that during the dry period, plant decay and microbial cells death lead to release and accumulation of labile P in the soil, the rainfall wetting the soil, permitting vegetation growth. In this respect, the Lomas climatic conditions contribute to soil fertility, especially as labile forms of phosphorus are chiefly concerned.  相似文献   
8.
Thelazia anolabiata is a spirurid nematode living in the orbits of birds which can cause lacrimation, keratitis, conjunctivitis, and corneal ulcers. This species is reported for the first time from an Andean Cock of the Rock, Rupicola peruviana (Passeriformes: Cotingidae), from a zoo in Lima, Peru. Clinical signs of keratoconjunctivitis were resolved with the treatment of ivermectin, ciprofloxacin, and an epithelium regenerator, and the host is presently in good health. The nematodes were identified using the primary characteristics used to differentiate the species of this genus as lengths of spicules and other morphologic characteristics.  相似文献   
9.
In a six-year-old peach palm (Bactris gasipaes) plantation, centrosema (Centrosema macrocarpum), a leguminous forage plant, was established as a cover crop which was eventually grazed. This experiment was designed to monitor probable changes in soil physical and chemical properties and measure peach palm fruit production and live-weight gain of cattle grazing this silvopastoral system. The experiment was installed on land that was previously cleared by a D7 bulldozer having a straight blade that mixed the thin layer of topsoil with the acid subsoil (20–40 cm) and severely compacted the soil. The results demonstrated that the centrosema cover crop reduced soil bulk density, increased water infiltration rates and reduced mechanical resistance. In general soil physical properties were improved with the use of Centrosema as forage and cover crop. Soil acidity and aluminum saturation decreased considerably, while potassium concentrations increased. Calcium and magnesium concentrations decreased over time as these minerals were stored in the pasture biomass, translocated to fresh peach palm fruits and/or exported to animals. A strong competition for nutrients was observed between the peach palm plants and Centrosema. The low production of peach palm fruits was in response to mechanized land clearing during initial establishment of the plantation, and also probably due to deficits of N, P, K, Ca and Mg in the soil instead of being a consequence to the presence of cattle. The average increase in live-weight gains of the cattle was at a rate of 445 g/animal/day during the four-years of the study. Such an increase is substantially greater than those registered in the area under traditional grazing systems used in the region. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
10.
秘鲁外海茎柔鱼肌肉组织的能量积累   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
能量积累是表征生物体身体能量储备水平的重要指标之一,对寿命短、生长快且终生一次繁殖的头足类属种的表征作用尤显重要。本实验根据我国远洋渔业鱿钓渔船于2014年6-8月在秘鲁外海(10?26?S~17?17?S,79?17?W~82?39?W)作业期间随机采集的茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)样本173尾(雌性107尾,雄性66尾),利用数学统计方法和组织能量密度测定技术,分析了该柔鱼个体的体重-胴长生长和胴体、足腕、尾鳍等肌肉组织的能量密度及其能量积累过程。结果显示,茎柔鱼雌雄个体的胴长、体重分别为(262.12±38.33)mm、(541.69±251.69)g,以及(251.37±31.90)mm、(449.78±179.99)g;雌雄个体的体重-胴长生长存在显著性差异(P0.05)。雌雄个体肌肉组织能量密度均以胴体的为最高,分别为(20.56±1.12)k J/g和(20.67±0.76)k J/g;足腕次之,分别为(20.09±1.25)k J/g和(19.95±0.87)k J/g;尾鳍最低,分别为(19.92±1.05)k J/g和(19.63±0.96)k J/g;同一组织雌雄个体间的组织能量密度无显著性差异(P0.05)。胴体、足腕、尾鳍等组织间的能量积累差异性显著(P0.05),胴体是最大的能量积累单元。其中,雌性个体胴体、足腕、尾鳍三组织的能量积累占比分别为63.14%、25.23%和11.63%;雄性个体的分别为65.89%、22.91%和11.20%。此外,胴体、足腕、尾鳍肌肉组织的能量随着个体生长积累显著(P0.05),并且这些肌肉组织的能量积累自低纬度向高纬度海域显著增加(P0.05),表明秘鲁外海茎柔鱼肌肉组织的能量积累过程是一个索饵育肥及其生长的过程。  相似文献   
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