天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价     

谢世清  梅云云 《湖南农业大学学报(自然科学版)》2011,(6):39-43

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。  相似文献   

河洛农业历法及其对台湾地区的影响     

郭新建 《安徽农业科学》2012,40(16):9183-9184

古河洛地区,即黄河与洛水交汇之流域,远古及夏商周先民在这片中华民族的中原腹地开创灿烂农业文明的同时,开创了领先世界的历法文明。他们以卓越的智慧造就了天象历法、干支纪日和四分历法,以及24节气历法,极大地推动了社会的进步与发展。随着河洛文明不断向域外扩展,气象历法也紧跟民族融合的步伐传入台湾地区,在该地区生根生长,发挥着其独特的动能。台湾历法文明根在河洛。  相似文献   

2010年7月本溪一次区域性暴雨天气形成机制分析     

高艳波 《安徽农业科学》2012,(6):3459-3461

受西风槽和副热带高压共同影响,本溪地区2010年7月19～22日出现了区域性暴雨、局部大暴雨天气过程,基于常规气象观测资料、加密自动站资料和数值预报产品等非常规气象观测资料对此次过程形成机理进行分析,以期积累经验,提高此类暴雨天气预报准确率。  相似文献   

Utility of on- and off-farm weather records for studies in genetics of heat tolerance     

M.S. Freitas  I. Misztal  J. Bohmanova  J. West 《Livestock Science》2006,105(1-3):223-228

Utility of weather information from on-farm and weather stations was evaluated for the application in studies on the genetics of heat stress. Daily milk yield of 31 primiparous Holstein cows was collected at Tifton, GA, from April 28 to July 19, 1993. Weather information was recorded on-farm and was available from weather stations in Georgia. Analyses used daily average of temperature–humidity index (THI). Effects of threshold of heat stress and the rate of decline in milk after the threshold were estimated. With on-farm weather data, threshold was at THI = 22 and rate of decline was − 1.12 kg of milk per unit of THI measured 2 days before milking. At the Tifton weather station, 3 km away from the farm, the threshold was THI = 20 and the rate was the same. With data from Macon, Columbus, Atlanta, and Athens stations, the threshold was at 20, 21, 20, and 20, respectively, and the rate of decline with a 2 day lag was − 0.88, − 1.02, − 0.90, and − 0.97 kg of milk per unit of THI. Subsequent analysis included 2260 test day records from the same farm from 1993 to 2003 and weather data from Tifton station. The highest rate of decline on milk yield of − 0.22 kg per unit of THI occurred at the threshold of 20 and no lag. For data restricted to 1999–2003, the threshold increased to 22 and the rate to − 0.46 kg per THI unit. Public stations provide satisfactory information for national genetic evaluation for heat stress. Critical parts in such an evaluation are modeling of test days and accounting for changes among farms and weather stations over time.  相似文献   

气象因素对毛竹秆形生长变异的影响   总被引：14，自引：2，他引：14  

汪阳东  韦德煌 《竹子研究汇刊》2002,21(1):46-52

在我国毛竹中心产区的调查分析结果表明 :毛竹的秆形生长同气象因素关系密切 ,在毛竹生长期内不同的具体生理过程 ,各种气象因子的影响程度不同 ,其中的某一或几个因子为主导性或限制性因子并同时综合作用于毛竹的生长发育。但是出笋成竹期和孕笋期的气候因子对毛竹的秆形生长量起决定作用 ,而其中降水因素的作用大于温度因素。此外 ,无论从不同产区 ,还是同一产区内不同地点的毛竹秆形生长变异同气象因子之间相关分析 ,均可知生长地有利的基本温、湿条件(常年的温、湿度条件 )是毛竹生长的前提条件。  相似文献   

高致病性禽流感与天气条件分析     

张晓云  汪靖  王鸿英 《安徽农业科学》2014,(1):121-123,134

利用全国气象观测资料、NCEP／NCAR日平均再分析数据资料集和我国高致病性禽流感疫情资料,分析高致病性禽流感发生的时空特征以及与天气条件的关系。结果表明,我国高致病性禽流感全年可以发生,疫情的分布范围广,大部分地区都有出现。发生和传播与环境气象条件有关,季节性明显,冬季和秋季为主要发病季节。冬季禽流感发生前高空500hPa以槽为主,冷空气活动频繁。发生日基本在高压系统的控制之下,地面流场呈辐散状,风速稳定少变。  相似文献   

江淮地区梅雨天气过程及2014年我国“北旱南涝”气候格局原因分析     

李明桃 《商界．城乡致富》2014,(9):50-52

从介绍梅雨天气特点出发,阐述了梅雨的形成过程,分析了2014年6—8月我国形成＆quot;北旱南涝＆quot;天气格局的原因,并论述了上海地区2014年盛夏7—8月的天气实况。  相似文献   

Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Elizabeth M. Glenn  Robert G. Anthony 《Biological conservation》2010,143(11):2543-2552

We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (λ) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, λ was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in λ accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls.  相似文献   

2008年持续低温降雪冻雨对梁子湖流域鸟类的影响调查     

李振文  李立  张德怀  余庆华 《野生动物》2008,29(6)

2008年1月,梁子湖流域遭遇历时罕见的持续低温降雪冻雨极端天气,304km~2梁子湖冰冻封湖15 d。地面持续冰雪覆盖,导致鸟类生境结构破坏,生境资源不可利用,最终因长时间食物匮乏和冷害的双重影响出现严重灾害性死亡。涉及鸟类22科42种,流域内数量损失30万～40万只。  相似文献   

AFLA-maize,a mechanistic model for Aspergillus flavus infection and aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize     

《Computers and Electronics in Agriculture》2013

A mechanistic weather-driven model was developed based on the infection cycle of Aspergillus flavus on maize to predict the risk of aflatoxin contamination in field on a daily basis from silk emergence to harvest; hourly data of temperature, relative humidity and rain were used as model input. The work was done in four steps: (i) development of the model prototype; (ii) collection of Italian field data on aflatoxin contamination in maize with related crop and weather data; (iii) development of a probability index to exceed the legal limit of 5 μg of aflatoxin B₁ per kg of unprocessed maize by combining model predictions and field data in a logistic regression; and (iv) validation with Italian data of the probability index and release of the predictive model, named AFLA-maize. Predictions of maize contamination above the threshold of 5 μg/kg in the data set used for parameterization of the regression equation were correct for 73% of field samples; 59% and 14%, respectively, were not contaminated and contaminated. In a second independent data set, 68% of samples were correctly predicted. The model AFLA-maize provides prediction of A. flavus infection and aflatoxin contamination along the growing season and at harvest. This information is useful to support decision-making for (i) crop management, (ii) harvest timing, (iii) maize lots cleaning and logistic, and (iv) maize sampling for aflatoxin analysis at consignment.  相似文献