小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测专家系统雏型     

肖长林  曾士迈 《中国农业大学学报》1990,(Z1):126-132

本文运用知识工程语言 M·1构造了一个用于小麦条锈病流行程度趋势预测的专家系统雏型。专家的知识用产生式规则来表示。知识库中的知识规则可相对独立,便于知识库的扩充和完善。  相似文献   

GI P_iCO₂: Tissue Specific Monitoring For Improving Patient Outcomes     

Piper L Wall DVM 《Journal of Veterinary Emergency and Critical Care》1996,6(1):7-11

Improvements in human patient monitoring despite their development in animals, do not always find their way into veterinary clinical use due to financial constraints. Gastrointestinal intraluminal CO₂ partial pressure (Gip₁CO₂) monitoring, however, is not only proving very beneficial in human trauma and critical patient care but is also very likely to become relatively inexpensive. By providing information on the perfusion adequacy of a high risk, critically important tissue, the GI mucosa, GI P₁CO₂ monitoring offers an easily accesible indicator of the efficacy and adequacy of resuscitative interventions. The potential for decreasing morbidity and mortality is enormous. Therefore, the practicing veterinarian should become familiar with GI P₁CO₂ monitoring theory and technology so he or she can be better prepared to incorporate it into practice when in becomes available.  相似文献   

应用积分GM(1,1)模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱建华  叶剑雄  张再福  陈红梅  傅瑞树 《福建林业科技》2002,29(1):23-25

以积分生成代替传统的累加生成方法 ,并用双向差分建立积分GM (1,1)灰色预测模型进行杉木炭疽病预测预报的研究 ,结果表明积分GM (1,1)模型能较好地预测杉木炭疽病在三明市的发生  相似文献   

Non-destructive determination of fat content in frozen and thawed mackerel by near infrared spectroscopy     

Junji  SHIMAMOTO  Kaoru  HASEGAWA  Minoru  SATO  Sumio  KAWANO 《Fisheries Science》2004,70(2):345-347

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Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model     

Hooten  Mevin B.  Larsen  David R.  Wikle  Christopher K. 《Landscape Ecology》2003,18(5):487-502

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段的灰色预测     

李卫红  杨思全  徐海量  李向军 《干旱区研究》2002,19(3):71-74

在对新亚欧大陆桥新疆段受损区段、受损长度及受损频率和受损密度详尽分析的基础上，揭示了陆桥新疆段受损区段的时空分布规律。并依据灾害的时序分布特征，运用灰色原理和方法，根据受损区段数确立阈值和相应的年份序列，分别建立GM（1，1）模型，求出年份序列的序号响应式，并对实际值和理论预测结果进行了拟合检验，模型群的原点误差范围为0.198-1.314之间，平均误差为0.823-1.917，并同时预测了陆桥新疆段2001－2005年间可能的受损区段数。  相似文献   

棉蚜预测预报网络数据库系统的设计与开发   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

吕昭智  沈佐锐  田长彦 《植物保护学报》2003,30(3):237-242

依据棉蚜Aphis gossypii Glover测报的国家行业标准(GB／T15799．1995)及其测报调查的相关信息标准，利用分布式数据库SQL建立了棉蚜预测预报数据库，数据库主要包括早春木本寄主蚜虫调查、早春草本寄主蚜虫调查、苗期棉蚜消长情况调查、苗期棉蚜普查、伏期棉蚜系统调查、伏期棉蚜普查、棉田天敌系统调查、植保站信息和气象信息等12个数据表；利用Internet网络技术和网络开发软件，建立了浏览器／服务器应用程序结构体系，实现了棉蚜虫情数据维护、查询、统计、报表和打印等网络数据库管理和预测数据挖掘功能。棉蚜网络数据库的建立和浏览器／服务器应用程序结构体系的组建和实现，为棉蚜区域化预测预报和管理提供了有力的科学和技术支持。  相似文献   

闭锁群体BLUP选择下遗传方差和近交系数的变化     

鲁绍雄  连林生  李明丽 《畜牧与兽医》2004,36(8):13-15

采用计算机随机模拟方法模拟了在一个闭锁群体内连续对单个性状进行 1 5个世代选择的情况。选择过程中世代不重叠 ,每个世代的种畜根据动物模型最佳线性无偏预测 (BLUP)法估计的育种值进行选留 ,并在此基础上系统地比较了不同群体规模、公母比例和性状遗传力对群体遗传方差和近交系数变化的影响。结果表明 ,扩大育种群规模、增加公畜比例以及对低遗传力性状进行选择时 ,群体遗传方差降低的速度和近交系数上升的速度会更慢 ,在长期选择时可望获得更大的持续进展和适宜的近交增量  相似文献   

ANN在森林资源预测中的应用研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

张锦宗  朱瑜馨 《干旱区研究》2004,21(4):374-378

人工神经网络(ANN)方法是基于实例的方法,不需要考虑数学模型的内部结构,不需要假设前提条件,不需要人为地确定因子权重,作为一个黑箱综合地映射研究对象的整体性。应用人工神经网络多步预测方法对甘肃连城林场吐鲁沟营林区有林地面积进行预测,网络模型的最大相对误差为0 080 8％,最小相对误差达到0 0089％,平均为0.038 6％,表明预测值与实际值吻合程度很好,因此模型的精度较高,并且建模简单经预测,林场2000-2004年有林地面积稍有下降趋势,分别为2 873.2 hm2,2 618 7 hm2,2 484.5 hm2,2 346 hm2,2 171 6hm2。  相似文献   

Including an additional systematic environmental effect within a generation in an evaluation model improves accuracy of prediction of breeding values in a closed herd of pigs     

Masahiro SATOH 《Animal Science Journal》2004,75(2):97-102

The present study evaluated the advantage of mixed‐model techniques over a selection index under different magnitudes of an additional systematic environmental effect (ASEE) in terms of accuracy of prediction and expected genetic gain. The data attempted to simulate a closed herd in a pig breeding program. The base population (G₀) consisted of 10 males and 50 females. Six generations (G₀ to G₅) were selected by using a selection index of three traits without overlapping. Additional systematic environmental constants with four levels in a generation were assigned from a uniform distribution at different ranges. Breeding values of animals in the last generation (G₅) were estimated on the basis of an index of individual phenotype (SI‐U), SI‐U adjusted for ASEE using a least‐squares mean (SI‐A), best linear unbiased prediction using an animal model excluding ASEE (AM‐E), and an animal model including ASEE (AM‐I). Accuracy of prediction and expected genetic gain were larger by the animal model than by the selection index, even if heritability of the traits selected was high and ASEE was set to zero. When ASEE was zero, the accuracy of prediction and expected genetic gain given by SI‐U and AM‐I were similar to those given by SI‐A and AM‐E, respectively. However, the differences in accuracy and expected gain between SI‐U and AI‐A and between AM‐I and AM‐E increased as the range of ASEE increased. It was concluded that selection based on an animal model was more effective than index selection, even if the herd environment was uniform and traits with high heritability were selected, and that it should be always included in an evaluation model, however slight any systematic environmental effect may be in a closed herd.  相似文献