A context for recruitment correlations: why marine fisheries biologists should still look for them     

A. V. TYLER 《Fisheries Oceanography》1992,1(1):97-107

In many cases when ecologists want to investigate a process, they often look for the best system on which to conduct the research, "best" meaning that the possibility of discovering mechanisms is optimized or made easier in some way. In fisheries we do it backwards. The species and system are given to us by economics, and we then fly in the face of the difficult circumstances to find mechanisms that are elusive anyway. These difficult circumstances constitute in some sense the first set of statistical problems. Using examples from the Northeast Pacific, I review the characteristics of cohort time series that make some species more tractable; propose a conscious process of conceptualization to assist in the formulation of clear, germane hypotheses; highlight the contrast between modeling in the sense of statistical fitting versus simulation models of processes; explore how the first round of models integrates with the second round of planning for new data collection at sea and in the lab; and, finally, propose how to judge success in terms of an operational approach.  相似文献   

Evaluation of two N cycle models for the prediction of N mineralization from grassland soils in the UK     

A. Bhogal  A. Bhogal  M.A. Shepherd  D.J. Hatch  L. Brown  S.C. Jarvis 《Soil Use and Management》2001,17(3):163-172

Abstract. The ability of two nitrogen cycle models, of contrasting complexity, to predict N mineralization from a range of grassland soils in the UK, was evaluated. These were NCYCLE, a simple mass balance model of the N cycle in UK grasslands, and CENTURY, a more complex model simulating long-term C, N, P & S dynamics in grassland ecosystems. The models were tested using field measurements of net N mineralization from a range of grassland soils (differing in soil type, history & management practice), obtained over a 2 year period using a soil core incubation technique. This method was considered to measure the total net release of mineral N from the soil organic matter over a specified time, including N which may have been recycled several times. NCYCLE consistently under-estimated mineralization rates at all sites. By contrast, there was some correlation between CENTURY predictions of net N mineralization and field measurements. This may have reflected the different abilities of the two models to simulate N recycling. Neither model, however, was able to predict adequately the effect of cultivation and reseeding on net N mineralization.  相似文献   

DYNAMIC MODELS OF AQUIFEROUS CONTENT OF LIVING FUELS     

罗光裕 《林业研究》1994,5(1):41-44

RESEARCHSITELivingfue1splayedanimportantroleinheatconcentrationactionorinheatsourceofforestfire.Whenitshumiditydecreasestoacertainlevel,theybecameaheatsourcewhenthelivingcombustibl-eswerecombinedwithfire.Thus,itwasessentialhowtodeterminethemoisturesituationandthefOrestfiredangerdegreetobeforecastedaccurately.Thedynamicmodelspresentedinthispaperwereusefultosolvethisproblem.Everyyear,-therewerealotofforestfires,especiallythefireoccurrenceinDaxinganMountains,inthespringofl987.Itwasveryimpo…  相似文献   

海南椴生长特性及苗木培育的初步研究     

黄仕训  王燕 《福建林业科技》1996,23(1):27-31

本文论述了海南椴幼年期生长特性，年生长节律，苗期生长规律以及苗木繁育技术。用ｌｏｇｌｓｔｉｃ方程拟合，找出高和直径生长的最优回归方程。  相似文献   

刺槐单株生物量动态研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

毕君  黄则舟  王振亮 《河北林果研究》1993,(4)

本文依据420株刺槐生物量及23株树干解析资料,应用灰色Verhulst模型,对太行山坡地刺槐林单株干、枝、叶、根生物量动态进行了研究,分别建立了预测模型,预测了各器官生长的速生期和停止生长林龄,为实现刺槐林的多目标经营提供决策依据。  相似文献   

BR农用荧光灯补光育苗的研究     

王羽梅  赵清岩  底升琪 《内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版)》1991,(1)

对黄瓜、番茄在育苗前期进行短时间的人工补光有明显促进生长的效果。农用荧光灯(BR)的补光效果优于日光型荧光灯(W)。早春育苗进行人工补光的时间以下午自然光照强度稍高于光补偿点、叶片气孔尚未关闭之前为好,呼和浩特、包头3月份16:00、4月份17:00开始补光为宜。补光的光强度在500～800lx 效果明显。光源距幼苗的距离以10cm 为宜。  相似文献   

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model     

Hooten  Mevin B.  Larsen  David R.  Wikle  Christopher K. 《Landscape Ecology》2003,18(5):487-502

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Landscape patterns as habitat predictors: building and testing models for cavity-nesting birds in the Uinta Mountains of Utah,USA     

Lawler  Joshua J.  Edwards  Thomas C. 《Landscape Ecology》2002,17(3):233-245

The ability to predict species occurrences quickly is often crucial for managers and conservation biologists with limited time and funds. We used measured associations with landscape patterns to build accurate predictive habitat models that were quickly and easily applied (i.e., required no additional data collection in the field to make predictions). We used classification trees (a nonparametric alternative to discriminant function analysis, logistic regression, and other generalized linear models) to model nesting habitat of red-naped sapsuckers (Sphyrapicus nuchalis), northern flickers (Colaptes auratus),tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), and mountain chickadees (Parus gambeli) in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah, USA. We then tested the predictive capability of the models with independent data collected in the field the following year. The models built for the northern flicker, red-naped sapsucker, and tree swallow were relatively accurate (84%, 80%, and 75% nests correctly classified,respectively)compared to the models for the mountain chickadee (50% nests correctly classified). All four models were more selective than a null model that predicted habitat based solely on a gross association with aspen forests. We conclude that associations with landscape patterns can be used to build relatively accurate, easy to use, predictive models for some species. Our results stress, however, that both selecting the proper scale at which to assess landscape associations and empirically testing the models derived from those associations are crucial for building useful predictive models. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

农村肉狗绿色养殖模式刍议     

马美蓉 《家畜生态》2004,25(2):63-65

近年来，农村肉狗养殖成为农民增收致富新的亮点，但也存在着一些误区。本文就农村肉狗养殖现状，分析了存在的主要问题，并提出绿色养殖肉狗的建议与对策。  相似文献   

黑龙江省城乡养殖专业户饲养奶牛的成本收益对比分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

姜法竹 《家畜生态》2004,25(4):252-255

大中城市郊区奶牛饲养作为畜产品匮乏时代的产物，作为国家“菜篮子工程”的重要组成部分，自然有其存在的历史合理性，但由此造成的日益严重的环境污染也不容忽视。以哈尔滨市为代表的黑龙江省大中城市专业户奶牛饲养，与农村专业户奶牛饲养相比，在生产成本、产品产量、收益水平等方面均不具有竞争优势。作为奶牛饲养基地布局，应将重点从大中城市郊区向远郊县区有条件的农村转移。  相似文献