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1.
油菜茎基溃疡病菌在中国定殖的可能性评估 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
为明确油菜茎基溃疡病菌Leptosphaeria maculans在我国定殖的可能性,并制订针对性的检疫措施,本研究基于该病菌在英国、法国、德国、波兰、加拿大、澳大利亚的分布数据,选取与病害发生有关的温度、降水量等15个变量,利用Max Ent和GARP两种生态位模型预测其在其它地区的潜在分布,并利用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)来评价模型模拟精度。结果显示,2种模型均能够较好地预测L.maculans的分布区域,与已记载的分布区域高度吻合,且全球范围内存在着许多高度适合L.maculans定殖的地区;2种模型也能预测L.maculans在我国的潜在分布区域,并且预测结果一致;GARP结果显示L.maculans在我国的中高度适生区包括内蒙古、吉林、陕西、宁夏、甘肃、新疆、西藏等地。鉴于L.maculans在我国的潜在分布研究结果,建议完善疫情监测体系,采取措施控制病菌的"进入风险",降低病菌"进入"后定殖的可能性。 相似文献
2.
香蕉细菌性枯萎病菌在中国的潜在适生区域 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
青枯菌2号小种引起的香蕉细菌性枯萎病(moko disease)是香蕉生产上最具毁灭性的病害之一.为指导香蕉细菌性枯萎病的预防控制和制定相关的检疫政策,该研究根据EPPO公布的香蕉细菌性枯萎病在全球范围内的分布资料,分别采用GARP和MAXENT两种预测模型对其在中国的潜在适生区域进行分析预测.结果显示,GARP和MAXENT的预测结果基本一致,均表明香蕉细菌性枯萎病菌在中国的潜在适生区域集中分布于东南部的云南、广西、广东、海南、福建、台湾、江西、湖南、贵州、四川、重庆、浙江、湖北等13个省(市、自治区),其中高风险适生区域包括广东、广西、台湾、海南、福建和云南省. 相似文献
3.
Youhua CHEN 《Integrative zoology》2008,3(3):166-175
Changes to the Earth's climate may affect the distribution of countless species. Understanding the potential distribution of known invasive species under an altered climate is vital to predicting impacts and developing management policy. The present study employs ecological niche modeling to construct the global potential distribution range of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) using past, current and future climate scenarios. Three modeling algorithms, GARP, BioClim and Environmental Distance, were used in a comparative analysis. Output from the models suggest firstly that this insect originated from south Asia, expanded into Europe and then into Afrotropical regions, after which it formed its current distribution. Second, the invasive risk of A. gracilipes under future climatic change scenarios will become greater because of an extension of suitable environmental conditions in higher latitudes. Third, when compared to the GARP model, BioClim and Environmental Distance models were better at modeling a species' ancestral distribution. These findings are discussed in light of the predictive accuracy of these models. 相似文献
4.
基于CLIMEX与GARP的三叶草斑潜蝇在中国的潜在分布预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
运用适生性分析软件CLIMEX与GARP对三叶草斑潜蝇Liriomyza trifolii(Burgess)在我国的潜在分布区进行预测。CLIMEX预测结果显示,全国638个气候站点中有415个站点的生态气候指数Ei﹥0,分布于30个省(或地区),在这些地区三叶草斑潜蝇存在定殖的潜在性。同时,GARP预测认为三叶草斑潜蝇的适生区主要覆盖我国东北地区、华北地区、华中地区和华南地区。将两个软件预测结果进行叠加分析显示预测结果基本吻合。潜在适生区叠加区域位于东北地区、华北地区、华中地区以及华南的部分地区,这些地区属于三叶草斑潜蝇的高度危险区域。 相似文献
5.
外来有害生物风险分析的方法和技术 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
概述了有害生物风险分析在防止外来物种入侵以及在国际贸易地位中的重要性,介绍了当前国内外进行有害生物风险分析常用的一些方法和技术以及相应的分析系统软件:Monte Carlo模拟方法、气候相似距方法、CLIMEX系统模拟模型、多指标综合评价方法、WhyWhere系统、GARP模型系统和地理信息系统(GIS),最后比较了上述技术和方法的优点以及存在的不足。 相似文献
6.
K. M. McNyset 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2005,14(3):243-255
Abstract – An essential innovation in aquatic biodiversity research would be a robust approach to accurately predict species’ potential distributions. In this paper, I conduct an analysis to test the efficacy of ecological niche modelling for predicting fish species’ potential distributions using an artificial‐intelligence algorithm, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐Set Prediction (GARP). Models of species’ ecological niches are developed using GARP, and projected onto geography to predict species distributions. To test the validity of this approach, I used freshwater fish distribution data for twelve fish species occurring in Kansas. These taxa were chosen to represent phylogenetic, distribution, and habit diversity. I subset these data by omitting half of the counties from model building, and test models using the omitted counties. Models were tested using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses. Of the species tested, all were statistically significant with the models showing excellent predictive ability. Omission errors across taxa ranged from 0 to 17%. This inferential capacity opens doors to many synthetic analyses based on primary point‐occurrence data. 相似文献
7.
WANG Yun-sheng XIE Bing-yan WAN Fang-hao XIAO Qi-ming DAI Liang-ying 《中国农业科学(英文版)》2007,6(12):1444-1449
The burrowing nematode (Radopholus similis) is one of the main quarantine pests in China, and the risk of invasion posed by this nematode is becoming more and more serious with regard to the international trade being intensified day by day. It is urgent to analyse the potential geographic distribution of R. similis in China. Genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system (GARP) and maximum entropy (MAXENT), the two niche models which have been widely used to predict the potential geographic distribution of alien species, were used to predict the distribution of R. similis in China. We also presented a model comparison of the results by both threshold-dependent and threshold-independent evaluations. It has been shown that the two niche models could be used to predict the potential distribution of R. similis reliably. The potential distribution of R. similis should be constricted within the south of China, such as Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Yunnan provinces, and Taiwan of China. The MAXENT gives a better prediction than that of GARP. R. similis can be introduced to China by flowers and nursery stock's international shipping. The predicted results indicate that R. similis can occur in south coastal area of China and Yunnan Province, which are the main flower and nursery stock's import-export areas in China. Consequently, a strong quarantine program is needed at the ports of such areas to prevent the pest from being introduced to China. 相似文献
8.
潜在外来入侵甜菜孢囊线虫在中国的适生性风险分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文应用MAXENT与GARP两种生态位模型对甜菜孢囊线虫在中国的适生性进行了风险分析和预测。结果表明甜菜孢囊线虫可在中国17个省市生存,适生范围为26°N～48°N,77.6°E～136°E。甜菜孢囊线虫入侵的高风险区:内蒙古南部、新疆西部、河北中南部、山西东北部、宁夏、甘肃北部;中风险区:北京、天津、陕西、山西大部、内蒙古西部和东南部、吉林西部、新疆北部;低风险区:河南、陕西南部、山东、内蒙古中东部、新疆中部、辽宁、吉林大部、黑龙江南部、江苏、安徽、湖北、湖南、江西、浙江北部;而青海、新疆南部、西藏、四川、重庆、云南、贵州、广西、广东、福建、海南、内蒙古少数地区和黑龙江部分地区属于基本不发生区。我国内蒙古、新疆、辽宁等省市甜菜种植区均适合甜菜孢囊线虫发生,对上述地区的进出口岸应加强甜菜孢囊线虫的检疫工作。 相似文献
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10.
Victoria Contreras 《Biological conservation》2009,142(12):2881-2885
Native populations of the axolotl (Ambystoma mexicanum), a microendemic salamander from Central Mexico, have seen alarming decline in the last decades owing to habitat loss caused by urban growth. The last remnant of its distribution is in a highly heterogeneous urban-rural water system in the Xochimilco region, at the southern edge of Mexico City. We developed a model of the species local distribution based on its ecological niche, using occurrence data and ad hoc limnetic variables via the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP), to identify suitable areas for the species and prioritize conservation efforts. Results indicated that potential distribution of the axolotl in Xochimilco is limited to 11 sites in six reduced, isolated, and scattered areas, located mostly in zones where traditional agriculture (chinampas) is the primary land use. Recent surveys found only a single organism in the whole study region, in one of the predicted sites, suggesting a critical situation for the long-term survival of the axolotl in the wild, and demanding urgent actions toward habitat and population restoration. This study also illustrates the utility of niche modeling approaches for aquatic systems at a fine scale. 相似文献