| 湖北省近200年大冻年表的建立及频率特征的初步分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 余武安,陈正洪,马德栗.湖北省近200年大冻年表的建立及频率特征的初步分析[J].湖北农业科学,2009,48(10). |
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| 作者姓名： | 余武安 陈正洪 马德栗 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖北省农业科学院果树茶叶研究所,武汉,430209
2. 武汉区域气候中心,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题，气象行业标准"柑橘冻害等级"，武汉区域气象中心科技发展基金重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文根据历史文献灾情记载以及近代气象资料,按照一定标准,建立了湖北省过去204年(1805～2008年)大冻年表,并依据大冻年表分析了大冻的年代际变化、周期性及其与太阳黑子变化和拉马德雷现象的关系.结果表明:1)过去204年共发生大冻33次,平均每10年发生1.62次(约6.2年一遇);2)在冷期平均每10年出现2次大冻,而在暖期平均每10年出现1次大冻;3)20世纪70年代以前,大冻年存在准80、24、10、4～6年周期震荡,此后24、10年周期快速衰减,4～6年周期依然存在;4)近100年,在拉马德雷冷位相时期,大冻年平均每10年出现2.3次,重现期为4.3年;暖位相时期,大冻年平均每10年出现1.3次左右.重现期为7.5年左右;5)近200年的大冻年并不都出现在太阳黑子的峰值或谷值年,不过最近100年太阳黑子谷值年大冻出现频率增加.
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| 关 键 词： | 大冻 年表 频率 周期分析 太阳黑子 拉马德雷 |
Establishment of the Chronology of Serious Freezing Events and Analysis on its Frequency in Last 200 Years in Hubei |
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| YU Wu-an,CHEN Zheng-hong,MA De-li.Establishment of the Chronology of Serious Freezing Events and Analysis on its Frequency in Last 200 Years in Hubei[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2009,48(10). |
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| Authors: | YU Wu-an CHEN Zheng-hong MA De-li |
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| Abstract: | Based on historical documents and modern meteorological data records,a chronology of serious freezing events has been established during the past 204 years (1805～2008) in Hubei province. According to the chronology,the decadal change,periodical properties of serious freezing events and its relationship with the number of sunspots and pacific decade oscillation were analyzed. The results showed that: 1) in the past 204 years,there were 33 serious freezing events which was about 1.62 times every 10 years (approximately one time every 6.2 years. 2) in the cold spell,there were 2 serious freezing events every 10 year,but only one event in warm spell. 3) the circulation of serious freezing events were 80,24,10 and 4～6 years before 1970s,but the circulation of 24 and 10 years had weaken quickly since 1970s,though the circulation of 4～6 years still existed. 4) during the recent 100 years,the serious freezing events occurred 2.3 times every 10 years,approximately once every 4.3 years in the cold phase of pacific decade oscillation,but 1.3 times every 10 years,approximately once every 7.5 years in the warm phase. 5) serious freezing events had not taken place only in peak or valley of the sunspot curve in last 200 years,however,serious freezing events occurred more in the valley years of sunspot in recent 100 years. |
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| Keywords: | serious freezing events chronology frequency periodical analysis sunspot pacific decade oscillation |
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