| 2012年大豆市场形势分析与2013年展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐雪高,孟丽.2012年大豆市场形势分析与2013年展望[J].农业展望,2013,9(1):20-25. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐雪高 孟丽 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 农业部农村经济研究中心 北京100810
2. 农业部信息中心 北京100125 |
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| 摘 要： | 受大豆种植效益较低影响，近年来大豆种植面积和产量连年下降。据国家统计局数据，2012年中国大豆种植面积连续第3年下降，全国大豆播种面积仅为717．7万hm2，较上年减少71．2万hm2。据国家粮油信息中心预计，2012年我国大豆产量为1280万t，同比下滑11．6％，创1993年以来新低。2012年国内大豆价格持续上涨，大豆进口激增，全年进口约5800万t，进口量再创纪录。展望2013年，短期国际、国内大豆价格将以稳为主，后期可能小幅下跌．且后期价格走势主要看南美天气变化。
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| 关 键 词： | 大豆 市场形势 展望 |
Analysis of Soybean Market Situation in 2012 and Its Prospect for 2013 |
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| Xu Xuegao
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Meng Li.Analysis of Soybean Market Situation in 2012 and Its Prospect for 2013[J].Agricultural Outlook,2013,9(1):20-25. |
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| Authors: | Xu Xuegao Meng Li |
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| Institution: | 2 ( 1. Research Center for Rural Economy of MOA,Beijing 100810; 2. Information Center of MOA,Beijing 100125) |
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| Abstract: | China＇s soybean acreage and production declined continuously in recent years, wmcn was affected by the lower planting benefits, mostly. China＇s soybean acreage in 2012 was declining the third consecutive year to 7. 177 million hectares, down 0.712 million hectares form the prior year based on recent information from the National Bureau of Statistics. According to the estimates from National Grain and Oils Information Center, China＇s soybean production in 2012 was projected at 12.8 million tons, down 11.6 percent again last year, and that was the lowest level since 1993. Domestic soybean price continued to rise, soybean imports increased quickly and were projected to get a high level at 58 million tons in 2012. Forecast the soybean market in 2013, we know domestic and international soybean prices will be stable in short -term and the future prices maybe lower slightly, which will be mainly influenced by South American weather. |
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| Keywords: | soybean market situation project |
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