| 基于Maxent模型预测水曲柳的潜在适生区 |
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| 引用本文： | 施晨阳,赖文峰,文国卫,蒋天雨,朱晓如,吕增伟,张国防.基于Maxent模型预测水曲柳的潜在适生区[J].西北林学院学报,2022,37(2):149-156. |
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| 作者姓名： | 施晨阳 赖文峰 文国卫 蒋天雨 朱晓如 吕增伟 张国防 |
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| 作者单位： | （福建农林大学 林学院，福建 福州 350002） |
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| 摘 要： | 水曲柳（Fraxinus mandshurica）是国家二级保护植物，是北方为数不多的珍贵硬阔树种，经济价值较高。使用R数据包ENMeval优化后的最大熵模型（Maxent），预测潜在适生区变迁过程，探索制约其潜在适生区发生变化的环境因子，进而识别可能引起迁移的气候异常因子。结果表明，受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC值）为 0.952 4，说明Maxent模型有很好的预测能力；水曲柳的现代高等适生区位于黑龙江和吉林东部、陕西南部以及甘肃东南部；影响水曲柳适生区变化的环境因子主要有年降水量、最暖季度平均气温、等温性、降水量季节性变化、海拔和最干月降水量，降水因子可能是制约水曲柳适生区变化的关键因子；水曲柳各时期的适生区范围变化较大，黑龙江、吉林、陕西为较为稳定的适生区，可能是水曲柳过去和未来稳定的避难所，未来高等适生区面积相对现代均有增加，推测水曲柳可能更加适应未来的高温环境。
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| 关 键 词： | 水曲柳 Maxent模型 气候变化 潜在适生区 |
Prediction of the Potentially Suitable Area of Fraxinus mandshurica Based on Maxent Model |
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| SHI Chen-yang,LAI Wen-feng,WEN Guo-wei,JIANG Tian-yu,ZHU Xiao-ru,LV Zeng-wei,ZHANG Guo-fang. Prediction of the Potentially Suitable Area of Fraxinus mandshurica Based on Maxent Model[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2022,37(2):149-156. |
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| Authors: | SHI Chen-yang LAI Wen-feng WEN Guo-wei JIANG Tian-yu ZHU Xiao-ru LV Zeng-wei ZHANG Guo-fang |
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| Institution: | （College of Forestry,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,Fujian,China） |
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| Abstract: | Fraxinus mandshurica,a second-class protected plant in China,is one of the few rare hard and broad tree species in Northern China with high economic value.In this study,the Maxent model optimized by ENMeval was used to predict the change process of the potentially suitable zone,to explore the environmental factors restricting the change of the potentially suitable zone,and then to identify the climate abnormal factors that may cause migration.The results of this study showed that the AUC (area under the ROC curve) value was 0.952 4 indicating that the prediction accuracy of the Maxent model was very high.The modern highly suitable areas of F.mandshurica are located in the eastern part of Heilongjiang and Jilin,the Southern part of Shaanxi and the Southeastern part of Gansu.The main environmental factors affecting the change of the suitable area of F.mandshurica were annual precipitation,average temperature in the warmest season,isotherm,seasonal variation of precipitation,altitude and precipitation in the driest month.Precipitation might be the key factor restricting the change of the suitable area of F.mandshurica.Heilongjiang,Jilin and Shaanxi are relatively stable and suitable areas,which may be the stable refuge of F.mandshurica in the past and the future.The area of highly suitable areas in the future will increase compared with that in modern times,so it is assumed that F.mandshurica may be more suitable for the high temperature environment in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Fraxinus mandshuricaFraxinus mandshurica Maxent model climate change potentially suitable area |
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