| 40年来我国粮食产量历史演变特征的初步分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王馥棠,王石立.40年来我国粮食产量历史演变特征的初步分析[J].中国农业科学,1990,23(4):80-87. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王馥棠 王石立 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象局气象科学研究院 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析探讨40年来我国粮食生产的波动特征。对粮食产量的预测预报以及逐年稳定增长具有重要的现实意义。全国和部分省（区）单产序列的分析表明：
1. 近40年来，我国粮食单产的增产年多于减产年，增产持续时间和增产幅度亦均大于减产年；
2. 各省（区）的增减产年频数呈准正态分布，其累积频率曲线可分为稳定、不稳定和中间型三类；
3. 增向转移概率大于减向转移概率，尤以减转增的概率为最大，减转减最小；
4. 40年来我国粮食生产的发展经历了低产缓慢发展—波动发展—高速增长不稳定发展的3个阶段；
5. 增减产年的历史演变具有较明显的准4年及其倍数周期的波动特征，各地主要波动周期的变化说明了粮食生产稳定性在地区上的差异。
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| 关 键 词： | 历史演变 频数分布 波动周期 |
A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF YIELD VARIATION IN CHINA DURING THE LAST 40 YEARS |
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| Wang Futang Wang Shili.A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF YIELD VARIATION IN CHINA DURING THE LAST 40 YEARS[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,1990,23(4):80-87. |
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| Authors: | Wang Futang Wang Shili |
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| Abstract: | The research on the characteristics of food production variation in China has important significance for its prediction-forecasting and stable increases yearly. Through analysing yield series both of the whole country and some provinces, it is noticed that during the last about 40 years, the years with increase in yield are much more than the years with decrease in yield, and the duration and amplitude of increase in yield are also larger than those of decrease in yield. It is also found that there is a quasinormal frequency distribution of years with increase and decrease in yield. According to the amplitude of fluctuation, their accumulated frequency curves can be classified into three types: stable, unstable and neutral. The calculation of transfer probability (TP)of years with increase and decrease in yield shows that TP in increase in general is much bigger than TP in decrease, as well as among all 4 TPs, the maximum TP is TP from decrease to increase, and TP from decrease to decrease is the minimum. Apart from these mentioned above, in the recent about 40 years, there are three stages in the development of food production in China, i. e. low.yield slow development stage, fluctuation development and high-increment unstable development stage.In addition, the analysis on the periodic fluctuation of increase and decrease in yield is completed, too. It shows that in general, period length of about 4 years and its multiple are prominent both in state and province food production. The variation of the main fluctuation period in different regions further proves the existance of regional differences of food production stability. |
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| Keywords: | Historical variation Frequency distribution Fluctuation period |
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