| 枣庄市秋季降水变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈连侠,张立文,赵淑芳,李兴,褚涛.枣庄市秋季降水变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2014(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈连侠 张立文 赵淑芳 李兴 褚涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省枣庄市气象局; |
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| 摘 要： | 利用枣庄市1971—2010年的秋季(9—11月)逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势估计、5年滑动平均以及降水距平百分率等方法,分析近40年枣庄市秋季降水变化特征。结果表明:近40年枣庄市秋季降水减少趋势明显,通过显著性检验;枣庄市秋季降水年代际变化较明显,其中1971—1987年为多雨期,1988—2010年为少雨期;枣庄市秋季平均降水量距平百分率为偏旱、偏涝的年份占65%,季平均降水量一般在73~110 mm,大旱年份大于大涝年份10%。枣庄市秋季平均降水量近10年比前30年减少了35%,秋季各旬仅9月中旬较常年偏多108%,其他各旬减少12%~68%,秋季阶段性干旱和连年秋季干旱明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 秋季 降水 特征分析 山东枣庄 |
Analysis of Precipitation Variation Characteristics in Autumn in Zaozhuang City |
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| Abstract: | Using autumn(September to November) daily precipitation data of 1971—2010 in Zaozhuang City to analyze precipitation variation characteristics.The results showed that:in the past 40 years,autumn precipitation of Zaozhuang City decreased obviously through the significant test; autumn precipitation decadal changed obviously,in which 1971—1987 was wet,1988—2010 was less rain;autumn precipitation anomaly percentage for the drought and flood year was 65%,season average rainfall was generally from 73 mm to 110 mm,big drought year was greater than the big flood year by 10%;autumn precipitation in recent 10 years reduced by 35% comparing with in the previous 30 years,each year in autumn only mid September was 108% more than perennial,other each year to reduced 12%~68%,autumn drought and drought in autumn stage were obviously. |
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| Keywords: | autumn precipitation characteristic analysis Zaozhuang Shandong |
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