Spatially varying temperature trends in a Central California Estuary |
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| Authors: | Ricardo T Lemos Bruno Sansó Marc Los Huertos |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Oceanography,Universidade de Lisboa and Maretec-Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa,Portugal;2.Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics,University of California,Santa Cruz;3.Science and Environmental Policy,California State University Monterey Bay,Seaside |
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| Abstract: | We consider monthly temperature data collected over a period of 16 years at 24 stations in the estuarine wetlands of the Elkhorn
Slough watershed, located in the Monterey Bay area in Central California, USA. Our goal is to develop a statistical model
in order to separate the seasonal cycle, short-term fluctuations, and long-term trends, while accounting for the spatial variability
of these features. In the model, each station has a specific, time-invariant mixture of two seasonal patterns, to encompass
the spatial variability of oceanic influence. Likewise, trends are modeled as local mixtures of two patterns, to include the
spatial variability of long-term temperature change. Finally, all stations share a common baseline, whose temporal variability
is linearly dependent on a variable that summarizes several atmospheric measurements. We use a Bayesian approach with a purposely
developed Markov chain Monte Carlo method to explore the posterior distribution of the parameters. We find that the seasonal
cycles have changed in time, that neighboring stations can have substantially different behaviors, and that most stations
show significant warming trends. |
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