| 基于Maxent模型的杨二尾舟蛾在西藏的适生区研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖义发,王梦君,张天星,戴桂萍,褚 彪,马 俊,王继山.基于Maxent模型的杨二尾舟蛾在西藏的适生区研究[J].林业调查规划,2022(5):43-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖义发 王梦君 张天星 戴桂萍 褚 彪 马 俊 王继山 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家林业和草原局昆明勘察设计院，国家林业局自然保护区及野生动物监测中心，云南 昆明 650216;西藏自治区林业和草原局森林病虫害防治站，西藏 拉萨 850000;拉萨市林业和草原局，西藏 拉萨 850000 |
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| 摘 要： | 为防止杨二尾舟蛾（Cerura menciana）在西藏自治区进一步扩散蔓延，采用最大熵（Maxent）生态模型，结合气候、降雨等环境因素对杨二尾舟蛾在西藏自治区的适生区进行模拟，并采用特性曲线（ROC）对结果进行了验证。结果表明，杨二尾舟蛾的潜在适生区约占西藏自治区总面积的1/3，并主要集中在西藏自治区的中部和东南部；昼夜温差与年温差比值（Bio3）、最冷季度平均温(Bio11)、最冷月份最低温(Bio6)和最干季度平均温(Bio9)可能是限制杨二尾舟蛾分布的主要环境因子；ROC曲线验证结果表明，Maxent模型对杨二尾舟蛾在西藏自治区的潜在适生区模拟精度高（AUC=0.993），结果可信。杨二尾舟蛾的适生区模拟为早期监测和预警提供理论依据，防止其进一步扩散蔓延。
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| 关 键 词： | 杨二尾舟蛾 Maxent模型 分布 适生区 环境因子 西藏自治区 |
Potential Distribution Area of Cerura menciana in Xizang Based on Maxent Model |
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| Abstract: | In order to prevent the further spread of Cerura menciana in Xizang, the research was carried out to predict the potential distribution area of Cerura menciana in Xizang using the Maxent model as prediction model, and temperature and precipitation as environment variables, and the prediction results were verified by the ROC curve. The results showed that the potential distribution area of Cerura menciana was about 1/3 of the total area, and distributed in southeastern and central Xizang. The Isothermality (Bio3), Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter (Bio11), Min Temperature of Coldest Month (Bio6) and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) might be the restrictive variable of the distribution of Cerura menciana. The ROC curve test indicated that the prediction with Maxent model had a higher precision (AUC=0.993), and was credible. These provided a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of Cerura menciana and some effective measures must be taken to prevent its spread for the further. |
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| Keywords: | Cerura menciana Maxent model distribution potential distribution area environment variable Xizang Autonomous Region |
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