| 近150年来长江入海流量变化的趋势、阶段与多尺度周期 |
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| 引用本文： | 万智巍,连丽聪,贾玉连,洪祎君,蒋梅鑫.近150年来长江入海流量变化的趋势、阶段与多尺度周期[J].水土保持通报,2018,38(2):14-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 万智巍 连丽聪 贾玉连 洪祎君 蒋梅鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西师范大学地理与环境学院鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省自然科学基金项目“全新世中期江西清江盆地古人类生计模式及其对环境变化的响应”（20161BAB213075）；鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室开放基金项目（PK2015003）；江西省重大生态安全问题监控协同创新中心项目（JXS-EW-00）；国家自然科学基金项目（41761045）；江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目（GJJ150305）；江西师范大学博士启动基金项目（6902） |
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| 摘 要： | 目的]分析近150a来长江入海流量变化的长期趋势、阶段性、突变性以及多尺度周期变化过程,为揭示长江入海流量的长期变化特征提供理论支撑。方法]基于长江汉口站长时间实测水文数据,利用现代汉口站和大通站流量一元回归模型,恢复以长江大通站为代表的1865—2014年长江入海流量序列。综合利用多种方法开展多尺度分析。结果]长江近150a入海流量序列表明,平均值为29 432m~3/s,变异系数为14.72%。趋势分析表明,近150a来长江入海流量呈现下降趋势,变化速率为-23.7m~3/(s·a)(p0.01)。阶段性分析表明,长江入海流量变化具有一定的波动性特征,大体上以1955年为分界点,在1865—1955年为流量上升阶段,1955—2014年为流量下降阶段。突变性分析表明,长江入海流量在1940s发生了突变,由丰水期转变为枯水期。多尺度周期性分析表明,长江入海流量变化过程表现出明显的非线性和非平稳性,具有150和60a的长期趋势,以及34,22,3~7a的中高频振荡周期,其中22a周期最为明显,可以通过99%置信度检验。结论]近150a来长江入海流量总体上呈下降趋势;其中自1955年以来长江入海流量处于一个显著的下降期;长江流域降水量变化是影响长江入海径流变化的重要因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 长江入海流量 长期趋势 阶段性 突变性 周期性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/8/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2017/10/16 0:00:00 |
Trend Phases and Periodic Changes of Discharges from Yangtze River in Past 150 Years |
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| WAN Zhiwei,LIAN Licong,JIA Yulian,HONG Yijun and JIANG Meixin.Trend Phases and Periodic Changes of Discharges from Yangtze River in Past 150 Years[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,38(2):14-18. |
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| Authors: | WAN Zhiwei LIAN Licong JIA Yulian HONG Yijun and JIANG Meixin |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry ofEducation, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330022, China,Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry ofEducation, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330022, China,Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry ofEducation, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330022, China,Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China and Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research Ministry ofEducation, School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330022, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective] The long-term trend, staged, abrupt, and multi-scale periodic variations of the discharge from the Yangtze River into the sea were analyzed in the past 150 years to provide theoretical support for revealing the long-term variation characteristics of the flow of the Yangtze River into the sea.Methods] Based on the hydrological data of the Hankou station in the Yangtze River, this paper reconstructed the runoff series of the Datong Station, Yangtze River from 1865 to 2014, by using the regression model derived from Hankou station and Datong station, and made use of a variety of methods to carry out multi-scale analysis.Results] The discharges from Yangtze River in nearly 150 years had an average flow of 29 432 m3/s, and had a coefficient of variation of 14.72%. The trend analysis showed that the discharges from Yangtze River in the past 150 years showed a decreasing trend with rate of -23.7 m3/(s·a)(p < 0.01) per year. Although, the periodic analysis showed that the change of the series had fluctuation characteristic. Two obvious different stages were recognized and it was separated at 1955. From 1865 to 1955, it was at a rising stage; from 1955 to 2014, it was at a descending stage. Abrupt analysis showed that the series had an abrupt point in 1940s, around which the water flow changed from wet period into dry term. The multi-scale periodic analysis showed that the series were obvious non-linear and nonstationary, with 150 years and 60 years of long-term trends, and with 34 years, 22 years, 3 to 7 years of high frequency oscillation cycles. Among of the cycles, the most obvious was 22-year one, which can be tested at 99% confidence level.Conclusion] In the past 150 years, the flow of Yangtze River into the sea had been in a downward trend, especially since 1955, it declined significantly. The variation of precipitation in the Yangtze River basin was an important factor that affected the runoff in the Yangtze River. |
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| Keywords: | discharges from Yangtze River long term trend stage abrupt periodic |
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