| 灰色预测在桉树冻害预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨韧.灰色预测在桉树冻害预报中的应用[J].北京林业大学学报,1987,9(1):95-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨韧 |
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| 作者单位： | 四川省绵阳市林科所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用灰色系统理论,选取历年冬季连续30天内≤0℃最大日数为低温指标,建立GM(1,1)模型,对绵阳市大叶桉冻害进行了预测。预测模型为:P(K+1)=25.1239e~(0.3645k)-23.1239后验差检验模型精度为第一级“GOOD”。预测下次灾年将在1999年出现。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 大叶桉 冻害 |
THE CALCULATION OF GREY SYSTEM IN THE APPLICATION TO FORECAST OF FREEZE INJURY OF TREES |
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| Yang Ren.THE CALCULATION OF GREY SYSTEM IN THE APPLICATION TO FORECAST OF FREEZE INJURY OF TREES[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,1987,9(1):95-99. |
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| Authors: | Yang Ren |
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| Abstract: | The most days within 30 days≤0℃ in every winter has been chosen as a low temperature target and the model GM (1, 1) has been set up to calculate the freeze injury of Eucalyptus robusta Smith in Mia-nyang by the Theory of Grey System. The calculation model is P(1) (K + 1) = 25.1239e0.3645K-23.1239. And the precision of the model is grade A. "Good" .According to the calculation of Grey System, next disaster willappear after 14 years (1999) |
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| Keywords: | Grey system Eucalyptus robusta Smith freeze injury |
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