| 黑土有机碳变化的DNDC模拟预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王德营,姚艳敏,司海青,唐鹏钦.黑土有机碳变化的DNDC模拟预测[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(3):277-283. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王德营 姚艳敏 司海青 唐鹏钦 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.农业部农业信息技术重点实验室 北京 100081 2.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 北京 100081;1.农业部农业信息技术重点实验室 北京 100081 2.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 北京 100081;1.农业部农业信息技术重点实验室 北京 100081 2.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 北京 100081;1.农业部农业信息技术重点实验室 北京 100081 2.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951501)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为探讨黑土有机碳的长期变化规律及DNDC模型在土壤有机碳预测方面的适用性,本文利用吉林省公主岭地区黑土不同施肥措施下的长期定位试验数据,选取不施肥(CK)、单施化肥(NPK)、配施有机肥(NPKM)和增施有机肥(M2+NPK)4个处理进行土壤有机碳分析,并将数据用作DNDC模型验证。验证结果表明:各处理DNDC验证中RMSE值均小于10%(分别为5.09%、6.11%、9.38%、8.36%),说明模拟值与观测值一致性良好,模型可用于该地区土壤有机碳模拟。选取了化肥施用、有机肥施用、秸秆还田比率、温度及降水5个因子进行模型的敏感性分析,结果表明:有机肥的施用对土壤有机碳含量的影响最显著,且这种影响具有持久性。最后模拟了4种施肥情境下未来(至2100年)的土壤有机碳变化情况。结果表明:对照不施肥处理(CK)土壤有机碳含量略有下降,至2100年土壤有机碳含量为11.55 g·kg-1,较试验前土壤初始有机碳(13.2 g·kg-1)下降约12.5%。单施化肥处理(NPK)土壤有机碳含量较为稳定,并未出现土壤有机碳含量下降。配施有机肥(NPKM)和增施有机肥(M2+NPK)处理土壤有机碳含量增加明显,至2100年土壤有机碳含量为24.4 g·kg-1和27.6 g·kg-1,分别较初始有机碳含量上升84.8%和109.1%。
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| 关 键 词： | 土壤有机碳 DNDC模型 黑土 有机肥 公主岭 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/10/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/1/13 0:00:00 |
Using DNDC model to simulate and predict changes in black soil organic carbon |
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| WANG Deying,YAO Yanmin,SI Haiqing and TANG Pengqin.Using DNDC model to simulate and predict changes in black soil organic carbon[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014,22(3):277-283. |
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| Authors: | WANG Deying YAO Yanmin SI Haiqing and TANG Pengqin |
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| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China 2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081, China;1.Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China 2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081, China;1.Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China 2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081, China;1.Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China 2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The objectives of this paper were to study long-term patterns of change in black soil organic carbon (SOC) and the suitability of the DNDC model to predict SOC. Based on available data from pre-set long-term experiment in Gongzhuling, Jilin Province, 4 fertilization modes were used to analyze changes in SOC. The 4 fertilization modes included no fertilization (CK), only chemical fertilizer application (NPK), combing chemical and organic fertilizers application (NPKM) and chemical fertilizer with increased organic fertilizer application (M2+NPK). The data were also used to validate the DNDC model. The DNDC verification results showed that root mean square error (RMSE) of each treatment was less than 10%. This suggested that the simulated values were consistent with the observed values, and that the DNDC model was suitable for simulating SOC in the study area. Five factors (chemical fertilizer, organic manure, straw, temperature and precipitation) were used to test the sensitivity of the model. Organic manure application had the most significant and continuous effect on SOC content. Future SOC variation in the next 100 years was also predicted. The results showed that SOC content declined slightly (by 12.5%), from initial value of 13.2 g·kg-1 to the predicted value of 11.55 g·kg-1 in 2100 for the CK. For the NPK treatment, SOC content was stable and without any declining tendency. SOC contents of NPKM and M2+NPK treatments increased significantly to 24.4 g·kg-1 and 27.6 g·kg-1 in 2100, representing increases over the initial SOC content of 84.8% and 109.1%, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Soil organic carbon DNDC model Black soil Manure Gongzhuling |
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