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| 福建省道路交通事故预测模型及其应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 郭建钢,伍雄斌,刘伟,江景舫,陈颖.福建省道路交通事故预测模型及其应用[J].福建农林大学学报(自然科学版),2008,37(1):109-112. |
| 作者姓名： | 郭建钢 伍雄斌 刘伟 江景舫 陈颖 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 福建农林大学交通学院,福建,福州,350002 2. 闽江学院汽车工程系,福建,福州,350108 3. 福建警察学院治安系,福建,福州,350007 4. 福建省公安厅交通警察总队,福建,福州,350001 |
| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金资助项目(S0650004)，福建省教育厅资助项目(JA03075) |
| 摘 要： | 以2005-2006年福建省公路运输量(旅客周转量、货物周转量)与道路交通事故4项指数(事故次数、死亡人数、受伤人数和经济损失)之间的关系为基础,应用BP神经网络技术,建立了3输入、单输出、16个中间单元层的道路交通事故预测模型,分别对福建省道路交通事故的4项指数进行预测.结果表明:2007年1-3月份交通事故4项指数预测值的最大相对误差绝对值分别为2.9513%、3.5714%、3.5469%和2.9485%.因此,该3层神经网络预测模型具有使用简便、方法实用、预测精度高的优点. |
| 关 键 词： | 道路交通事故 预测模型 BP神经网络 旅客周转量 货物周转量 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-5470(2008)01-0109-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年10月16 |
Predicting model of highway transportation accidents in Fujian and its application |
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| GUO Jian-gang,WU Xiong-bin,LIU Wei,JIANG Jing-fang,CHEN Ying.Predicting model of highway transportation accidents in Fujian and its application[J].Journal of Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University,2008,37(1):109-112. | |
| Authors: | GUO Jian-gang WU Xiong-bin LIU Wei JIANG Jing-fang CHEN Ying |
| Abstract: | Based on the relationship between the highway kilometers(passenger-kilometers and goods-kilometers) and the four terms of highway transportation accidents(quantities of traffic accidents,traffic deaths,traffic wounds,economic losses) in Fujian,the predicting models of highway transportation accidents,which included three inputs,single output and sixteen middle floors,were established by ANN technology,and the quantities of traffic accident,the number of traffic death,the number of traffic wound,traffic losses in Fujian were predicted in the paper.The results showed that from January to March in 2007,the maximum absolute values of relative error of the estimated value of the four traffic accident indexes were 2.9513%,3.5714%,3.5469% and 2.9485%,respectively.It was also proved that the models were feasible and easy to use,and had high accuracy. |
| Keywords: | highway transportation accident predicting model BP network passenger-kilometer freight-kilometer |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |