| 江南地区大棚草莓产量预报模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李清斌,仲鹏志,魏莎莎,黄新,陈磊,孙军波,曹艳艳.江南地区大棚草莓产量预报模型研究[J].农学学报,2023,13(5):66-70. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李清斌 仲鹏志 魏莎莎 黄新 陈磊 孙军波 曹艳艳 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省慈溪市气象局，浙江慈溪 315300 |
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| 基金项目： | 宁波市气象局科技项目“大棚草莓气象灾害影响风险与预警技术研究”(NBQX2018013B); 浙江省重点研发计划子项目“浙江省主要果树极端气候预防关键技术及集成示范”(2018C02011) |
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| 摘 要： | 研究旨在建立以浙江慈溪为代表的江南地区气候相似区域无加温大棚草莓产量预报模型。根据冬春季大棚草莓主要生育期和果实生长发育生理特性，以2011—2021年浙江省设施农业气象试验站（慈溪）大棚草莓产量统计数据、产量形成期大棚内各小气候要素气象资料为研究基础，采用多项式预报法，构建基于有效积温和辐热积等小气候关键因子与产量的多元回归模型，从而建立江南地区大棚草莓产量预报模型。所建产量预报模型平均精度达95.3%，最低精度在90%以上，有较好精度，可提供较为准确的大棚草莓年产量预报信息，可为江南地区大棚草莓及其他气候相似区大棚果蔬作物生产过程中的产量预报提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 大棚草莓 产量预测 预报模型 大棚小气候 有效积温 辐热积 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-03-09 |
Study on Forecasting Model of Strawberry Yield in Greenhouses in the South of the Yangtze River |
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| LI Qingbin,ZHONG Pengzhi,WEI Shasha,HUANG Xin,CHEN Lei,SUN Junbo,CAO Yanyan.Study on Forecasting Model of Strawberry Yield in Greenhouses in the South of the Yangtze River[J].Journal of Agriculture,2023,13(5):66-70. |
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| Authors: | LI Qingbin ZHONG Pengzhi WEI Shasha HUANG Xin CHEN Lei SUN Junbo CAO Yanyan |
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| Institution: | Cixi Bureau of Meteorology, Cixi 315300, Zhejiang, China |
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| Abstract: | The study aims to establish a strawberry yield forecasting model for unheated greenhouses in climate-similar regions in the south of the Yangtze River, represented by Cixi of Zhejiang Province. According to the main growth periods and the physiological characteristics of fruit growth of greenhouse strawberry in winter and spring, we used statistical data of strawberry yield in greenhouses in Zhejiang Province Facility Agricultural Meteorological Experiment Station (Cixi) from 2011 to 2021 and the microclimatic data of various microclimate elements in greenhouses during the period of yield formation for the study. Then, we adopted the polynomial forecasting method to establish a multiple regression model based on key microclimatic factors such as effective accumulated temperature and radiative heat accumulation and the strawberry yield, and built a yield forecasting model of greenhouse strawberry for the south of the Yangtze River. The average accuracy of the yield forecasting model was 95.3%, and the minimum accuracy was above 90%. The model had good accuracy and could provide more accurate forecasting information for the annual yield of greenhouse strawberry. This study can be a basis for the yield forecast of greenhouse strawberry in the south of the Yangtze River and the production of greenhouse fruits and vegetables in other climate-similar regions. |
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| Keywords: | greenhouse strawberry yield forecast forecasting model greenhouse microclimate effective accumulated temperature radiative heat accumulation |
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