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| 基于灰色模型GM(1,1)的兰州市耕地动态变化预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 陈富,孙鹏举,刘学录,张小静.基于灰色模型GM(1,1)的兰州市耕地动态变化预测[J].湖南农业科学,2009(3). |
| 作者姓名： | 陈富 孙鹏举 刘学录 张小静 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院,甘肃,兰州,730070 2. 甘肃省国土资源规划研究 3. 定西市旱农科研推广中心,甘肃,定西,743000 |
| 基金项目： | 兰州市土地利用总体规划前期专题研究项目 |
| 摘 要： | 采用了灰色理论建模原理和模型参数辨识方法,以兰州市1997～2005年耕地数据为基础和平台,探讨耕地数量动态变化.结果表明,兰州市耕地面积在未来十几年内仍将呈现持续减少的趋势;人均耕地面积将逼近警戒线,耕地保护形势相当严峻.因此保护耕地资源,坚持理性发展,理性规划,做到开发与利用并举是刻不容缓的任务. |
| 关 键 词： | 耕地 GM(11)模型 预测 兰州市 |
Dynamic Change Prediction of the Cultivated Land in Lanzhou City Based on the Gray Model(1,1) |
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| CHEN Fu,SUN Peng-ju,LIU Xue-lu,ZHANG Xiao-jing.Dynamic Change Prediction of the Cultivated Land in Lanzhou City Based on the Gray Model(1,1)[J].Hunan Agricultural Sciences,2009(3). | |
| Authors: | CHEN Fu SUN Peng-ju LIU Xue-lu ZHANG Xiao-jing |
| Institution: | 1.College of Resource and Environment;Gansu Agricultural University;Lanzhou 730070;PRC;2.Gansu Research Academy of Land Resource Plan;Lanzhou 730000;3.Researchful Extended Heart of Droughty Agriculture;Dingxi 743000;PRC |
| Abstract: | The dynamic changes of the cultivated land in the amount were explored by adopting the modeling principle of grey theory and the recognition method of model parameter,with the cultivated land data of Lanzhou city in Gansu Province during 1997-2005 as base and platform.The results showed that the cultivated land area in Lanzhou city presented a decreasing tendency in the future decades years.Cultivated land areas per person would approach the security line.The protection of cultivated land was very grim in L... |
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| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |