| 东北农区农业净碳汇时空分布及驱动因素 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张慧 张力文 何正弘 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北农业大学公共管理与法学院, 哈尔滨 150000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41402297）；黑龙江省博士后资助项目（LBH-Z12032） |
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| 摘 要： | 农业兼具碳源和碳汇双重属性，是我国实现碳达峰碳中和目标的重要组成部分。从农业碳排放公平性角度出发综合管控农业碳源和碳汇量，明晰农业净碳汇的驱动因素对于实现东北农区农业低碳发展具有重要意义。基于2000—2020年黑龙江省各市域的社会经济及农业生产等数据，本研究通过生态承载模型、经济效率模型和地理探测器对区域农业碳排放公平性特征及净碳汇驱动因素进行探究。结果表明：黑龙江省农业净碳汇总量呈现波动上升趋势，由 2000 年的 1.21×107 t 上升至 2020 年的4.02×107 t。齐齐哈尔、绥化和哈尔滨三市农业净碳汇量较高，三市总和占黑龙江省碳汇量的51%以上。从农业碳排放公平性分区来看，双高区主要向南部和中部的哈尔滨、黑河和绥化等地聚集，双低区逐渐向东部的鸡西、双鸭山和鹤岗等地集中。双低区持续向经济高值区、生态高值区以及双高区发展，但不同市域间差距依旧显著。耕地面积和机械化水平是农业净碳汇空间分异的主导驱动因素。交互探测结果显示耕地面积和机械化水平与其他各因素的交互作用最强，同时净碳汇量受机械化水平和城镇化水平交互作用的影响最大。研究表明，黑龙江省需根据各地区具体情况制定差别化的绿色农业管控措施，以推进东北农区农业可持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业净碳汇，公平性评价，地理探测器，驱动因素，黑龙江省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/5/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/8/30 0:00:00 |
The spatiotemporal distribution and driving factors of agricultural net carbon sink in northeast agricultural areas |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Hui ZHANG Liwen HE Zhenghong |
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| Institution: | School of Public Management and Law, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150000, China |
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| Abstract: | Agriculture has dual roles as a carbon source and a carbon sink and is an important component of China''s goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In terms of fairness in agricultural carbon emissions, it is of immense importance to comprehensively control agricultural carbon sources and sinks and clarify the driving factors of agricultural net carbon sinks to achieve low-carbon agricultural development in northeast agricultural areas. Based on social and economic data and agricultural production data from cities in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020, we explored the equity characteristics of regional agricultural carbon emissions and the driving factors of net carbon sinks using ecological carrying capacity models, economic efficiency models, and geographical detectors. The results showed that the total amount of agricultural net carbon sink in Heilongjiang Province demonstrated a fluctuating upward trend, from 1.21×107t in 2000 to 4.02×107t in 2020. Qiqihar, Suihua, and Harbin had the highest net carbon sequestration in agriculture, with the three cities accounting for over 51% of the carbon sequestration in Heilongjiang Province. In terms of agricultural carbon emission equity zoning, the dual high zone primarily concentrated toward Harbin, Heihe, and Suihua in the south and central regions, whereas the dual low zone gradually concentrated toward Jixi, Shuangyashan, and Hegang in the east. The dual low zone is gradually developing toward an economic high-value zone, ecological high-value zone, and dual high zone; however, the gap between different cities is still significant. The area of arable land area and the mechanization level are the main driving factors for the spatial differentiation of agricultural net carbon sinks. The results of interaction detection show that the interaction between arable land area and mechanization level has the strongest correlation with other factors. The net carbon sink is most affected by the interaction between the mechanization and urbanization levels. Heilongjiang Province must develop differentiated green agriculture control measures based on the specific situation of each region to promote sustainable agriculture development in northeast agricultural areas. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural net carbon sink fairness evaluation geographic detectors driving factor Heilongjiang Province |
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