| 浙江省褐飞虱模式预报研究 |
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| 作者姓名： | (Coorperative Research Group for the Forecasting Model of Brown Planthopper in Zhejiang |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省褐飞虱模式预报研究协作组 |
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| 摘 要： | 浙江省褐飞虱模式预报研究浙江省褐飞虱模式预报研究协作组关键词：模式预报；褐飞虱；回归分析ＳｔｕｄｉｅｓｏｎｔｈｅＦｏｒｅｃａｓｔｉｎｇＭｏｄｅｌｓｏｆＢｒｏｗｎＰｌａｎｔｈｏｐｐｅｒ，Ｎｉｌａｐａｒｖａｔａｌｕｇｅｎｓ（Ｓｔａｌ），ｉｎＺｈｅｊｉａｎ...
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| 关 键 词： | 模式预报 褐飞虱 回归分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 1900-01-01; |
Studies on the Forecasting Models of Brown Planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), in Zhejiang |
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| (Coorperative Research Group for the Forecasting Model of Brown Planthopper in Zhejiang.Studies on the Forecasting Models of Brown Planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stal), in Zhejiang[J].Chinese Journal of Rice Science,1995,9(3):185-188. |
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| Authors: | Coorperative Research Group for the Forecasting Model of Brown Planthopper in Zhejiang |
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| Institution: | (Coorperative Research Group for the Forecasting Model of Brown Planthopper in Zhejiang |
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| Abstract: | Used the historical data over 15 years from five cities/counties, a group of forecasting models was established by means of stepwise regression. The models could forecast both emergent quantity and degree of the main endangering generation of brown planthopper (BPH) on late-season rice. Through eight-year forecasting and verifying, 73 models were chosen from 469 ones. These models, a complete group of forecasting models, could be used as long, middle and short term forecasting. The accurate rate of forecast was 93.98% for the whole, and 87.5%, 95.83 % and 100% for either. This forecasting method suited to more than 400 thousand ha paddy-field covered 23 cities/counties in Zhejiang. The middle and long term model could forecast 25 days and 55 days earlier than conventional forecasting method, respectively. |
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| Keywords: | model forecast Nilaparvata lugens regression analysis |
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