| 我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究--基于X-12和H-P滤波法的实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李辉尚,马娟娟,沈,辰,杨,唯,刘继芳.我国马铃薯价格波动规律研究--基于X-12和H-P滤波法的实证分析[J].中国蔬菜,2017,1(2):60. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李辉尚 马娟娟 沈 辰 杨 唯 刘继芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所，农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室，北京 100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 马铃薯作为重要的农产品之一,其价格波动受多种因素影响。本文采用X-12模型和H-P滤波法,选取2005年1月至2015年12月全国农产品批发市场价格的月度数据,将其波动分解为季节性、周期性、趋势性和不规则性波动4种类型。结果显示,马铃薯生产的季节性是价格季节性波动的主要原因;成本上升及消费量增加推动价格趋势性上涨但总体趋于平缓;马铃薯价格呈明显的周期性波动,平均周期约为47个月;天气变化、市场突发事件等是价格不规则性波动的主要影响因素。对此,需扎实推进马铃薯生产稳定发展、健全全产业链信息分析预警机制、完善马铃薯价格保险制度,并推进马铃薯一二三产业融合发展,确保薯农收益稳定增长和市场供需基本平衡,促进市场平稳运行。
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| 关 键 词： | 马铃薯 价格 波动规律 X-12 H-P 滤波 |
Study on the Fluctuation Rule of Potato Price in China—The Empirical Analysis Based on X-12 and H-P Filtering Model |
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| LI Hui-shang,MA Juan-juan,SHEN Chen,YANG Wei,LIU Ji-fang.Study on the Fluctuation Rule of Potato Price in China—The Empirical Analysis Based on X-12 and H-P Filtering Model[J].China Vegetables,2017,1(2):60. |
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| Authors: | LI Hui-shang MA Juan-juan SHEN Chen YANG Wei LIU Ji-fang |
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| Institution: | Agricultural Information Institute，Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology of Ministry of Agriculture，Beijing 100081，China |
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| Abstract: | As an important agro-products，the price of the potato was influenced by many factors and discussed in the article. Base on the data of the monthly price of national wholesale market from January 2005 to December 2015，the fluctuation ruler were studied with X-12 a nd H-P filtering models and the seasonal，
cycle，trend and irregular fluctuations were deposed. The results showed that the main reason of seasonal price fluctuation was the seasonal production，the increasing cost and consumption had pushed up the price increasing in the long trend although the overall would be flat，the cycle fluctuation was obvious and the average period was about 47 months，and the weather changes and market events were the main factors affecting of the price irregular
fluctuation. Some countermeasures were given such as promoting production，enhancing the whole industry chain information analysis and early-warning and the price insurance system，promoting the convergence development of primary，secondary and tertiary industries to ensure the steady growth of the income of potato farmers，improve the balance of market supply and demand and smooth the marketing fluctuation. |
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| Keywords: | Potato Price Fluctuation rule X-12 H-P filter |
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