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| 设计洪水不确定性对水库极限风险的影响研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 葛慧,黄振平,王银堂,张娇娇,程亮.设计洪水不确定性对水库极限风险的影响研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2011(2). |
| 作者姓名： | 葛慧 黄振平 王银堂 张娇娇 程亮 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学水文水资源学院,南京,210098 2. 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京,210098 3. 河北省水利水电勘测设计研究院,天津,300250 |
| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200901030,201001002); 水利部科技推广计划项目(TG1109) |
| 摘 要： | 以漳河流域岳城水库为例,选取30场实测洪水过程作为典型洪水,分别从放大方法不确定性和典型洪水不确定性角度,分析设计洪水不确定性时水库极限风险的影响.以水库校核洪水位为极限风险控制指标,在给定调度规则下对不同汛限水位方案进行调洪,得到水库调洪最高水位和防洪极限风险率.通过综合分析,认为保守情况下可将主汛期汛限水位抬升至132.50 m(提高0.50 m),冒险情况下可将汛限水位抬升至134.00 m(提高2.00 m). |
| 关 键 词： | 设计洪水 放大方法 典型洪水 汛限水位 极限风险 |
Extreme Risk Analysis under Uncertainty of Design Flood |
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| GE Hui , HUANG Zhen-ping , WANG Yin-tang , ZHANG Jiao-jiao , CHENG Liang.Extreme Risk Analysis under Uncertainty of Design Flood[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2011(2). | |
| Authors: | GE Hui HUANG Zhen-ping WANG Yin-tang ZHANG Jiao-jiao CHENG Liang |
| Institution: | GE Hui1,HUANG Zhen-ping1,WANG Yin-tang2,ZHANG Jiao-jiao3,CHENG Liang2(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai Univ.,Nanjing 210098,China,2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,3.Hebei Research Institute of Investigation and Design of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Tianjin 300250,China) |
| Abstract: | Taking Yuecheng reservoir in Zhanghe Basin as a study object,basing on the observed flood hydrograph data(more than 30 series),the extreme risk affected by uncertainty of design flood was analysis from two aspects of amplification methods and typical flood hydrograph.The highest flood-regulating level of reservoir and extreme risk of exceeding the check flood level are obtained by flood regulating for different limited water level.Through the comprehensive analysis and discussion,the limited water level of ... |
| Keywords: | design flood amplification methods typical flood hydrograph limited water level extreme risk |
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