| 吉林省玉米产量预测统计模型研究（英文） |
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| 引用本文： | 周永娟,侯彦林,李红英.吉林省玉米产量预测统计模型研究（英文）[J].农村实用技术与信息,2009(3):232-234,239. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周永娟 侯彦林 李红英 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院研究生资源与环境学院,北京100039 |
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| 基金项目： | The research was funded by National nature science foundation of China. and we thank Jilin agricultural college for field and laboratory work support during the course of this research. And to Jilin statistical bureau foe offering the statistical data. |
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| 摘 要： | 产量预测研究对于国家进出口计划，制定国家政策等具有重要的战略意义和显示意义。玉米在许多国家均是大宗作物，种植范围也相当广泛，因此玉米产量预测研究也有着重要的现实意义。在众多产量预测方法中模拟模型应用的较多，也有基于气象因子的统计模型。根据前人的研究，建立了吉林省玉米产量预测统计模型。模型包括气候、土壤和管理三大类因素共10个主要影响大田玉米产量的10因子，经逐步回归最终获得参数最少，决定系数最大的统计模型，Y=-72125.573＋34.952X1＋22.92X2＋72.48X5-24.008X6＋1252.852X7-12.119X8＋20.975X9，方程的决定系数R2=0.919。经检验模型可以用于预测吉林省玉米产量。
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| 关 键 词： | 统计模型 产量预测 玉米 吉林省 |
Statistical model for maize yield forecasting for Jilin province,China |
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| Authors: | Yong-juan Zhou Yan-lin Hou Hong-ying Li |
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| Institution: | (College of Resource and Environment, Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing,100049, China) |
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| Abstract: | Yield forecasting in advance is required for export planning and policy decisions. Maize is the staple food in many coun- tries and is grown in varied climates from pre-humid to semiarid areas. Simulation models were used to predict crop yield in many coun- tries, crop-weather models were also used, especially in India. In this paper, an attempt was made to predict maize yield in Jilin, China by including climate, soil and management factors and ten variables were selected. Twenty-three years （197911980-2003/2004） data were used for the study. The ten variables were subjected to stepwise regression analysis and only six predictors were retained in the final mod- el（blodeliv） with an R2--0.919.The Model IV with minimum parameters Y=-72125.573＋34.952Xl＋ 22.92X2 ＋72.48X 5 -24.008X6 ＋ 1252.852X7 - 12.119X8 ＋20.975X9 （R2=0.919） can be used to predict maize yield in Jilin, China. |
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| Keywords: | Statistical model Yield forecasting Maize Jilin Province |
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