| 农机购置补贴对农户购机投入模型与影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 冷博峰,冯中朝,周晓时,李谷成.农机购置补贴对农户购机投入模型与影响分析[J].农业工程学报,2020,36(23):324-334. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冷博峰 冯中朝 周晓时 李谷成 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉 430070;湖北农村发展研究中心,武汉 430070;南京理工大学经济管理学院,南京 210094;华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉 430070;华中农业大学现代农业产业经济研究院,武汉 430070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目"劳动力成本上升对农业生产的影响机理与实证研究"（71473100）;国家自然科学基金项目"中国的农业机械化模式及其对农户收入增长与差距的影响研究"（72003089）;国家万人计划青年拔尖人才支持计划"有中国特色农业机械化模式研究"（2015-48-2-50）;华中农业大学博士研究生创新研究工程项目"基于农户认知与决策视角的粮食主产区精准化利益补偿机制构建研究"（2014bs33） |
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| 摘 要： | 农业机械购置补贴是一项重要的现行农业政策,但现有文献对补贴效果的时空差异、农机类型差异和内生性问题讨论不足。为了更准确地评估政策效果,并分析政策效果的时空差异和农机类型差异,该研究基于国家油菜产业体系18省（区）农户固定观察点3287个农户2008－2018年之间15 089个样本的大样本调查数据,采用非平衡面板固定效应模型、面板高维固定效应模型、Box-Cox模型和分位数回归模型,考察了农业机械购置补贴对农户农业机械购置金额投入在不同年度、地形区域和不同类型农机具之间的差异化影响,并分别采用面板工具变量固定效应模型、面板Tobit固定效应模型和Heckman样本选择模型进行了稳健性检验。结果显示：1）农机补贴金额对农户农机购置投入金额的边际效应为2.530 8元,激励效应显著,有效带动了农户购机投入;2）补贴在平原县的边际效应为1.408 5元,在丘陵山区县的边际效应为3.108 2元,在平原地区和丘陵山区之间存在显著差异;3）补贴的激励效应在年度间存在明显波动,部分年份表现为挤出效应;4）补贴效果总体上随着农机具价值增加而增强,对大中型农机具的政策效果更高。因此,建议未来继续实施农机补贴政策,并继续坚持向非平原地区和大中型农机具适当倾斜,对农机生产企业研发丘陵山区机械化所需机型和大型先进农机具给予适当研发补贴,鼓励各地在农机补贴新产品补贴试点目录中及时纳入丘陵山区适用机型和大型先进农机具,加快新产品转化和推广应用步伐,同时,根据补贴实施情况和农机化发展情况不断调整完善补贴方式。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业机械 模型 购置补贴 激励效应 挤出效应 时空差异 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/3/17 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/11/29 0:00:00 |
Modeling and analysis of the effects of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies on farmers' agricultural machinery investment |
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| Leng Bofeng,Feng Zhongchao,Zhou Xiaoshi,Li Gucheng.Modeling and analysis of the effects of agricultural machinery purchase subsidies on farmers' agricultural machinery investment[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2020,36(23):324-334. |
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| Authors: | Leng Bofeng Feng Zhongchao Zhou Xiaoshi Li Gucheng |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China; 2. Hubei Rural Development Research Center, Wuhan 430070, China;;3. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China;; 1. College of Economics & Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China; 4. Research Institute for Advanced Agricultural Economy, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China; |
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| Abstract: | Agricultural machinery purchase subsidy is an important agrarian policy, its policy effect has been widely concerned by scholars. However, very few studies have discussed the spatiotemporal difference, agricultural machinery types difference and endogeneity of subsidy''s policy effect. The purpose of the present study is to make policy effect evaluation more accurately, and analyze the spatiotemporal difference and agricultural machinery types difference of policy effect. Different from existing studies, the present study uses a large sample collected from 15 089 observations in 3 287 households at 18 provinces from 2008 to 2018 by China agriculture research system(rapeseed) farmer fixed observation point and employs unbalance panel fixed effect model, panel high-dimensional fixed effects model, Box-Cox model, quantile regression model to calculate the differential policy effects between different year, topographic regions and types of agricultural machinery purchase subsidy on farmer''s agricultural machinery self-investment. In addition, instrumental variables fixed-effects panel-data models, Tobit fixed-effects panel-data models and Heckman sample selection models were used for the robust test. The result showed that: 1) On the whole, agricultural machinery purchase subsidy had an obvious incentive effect, effectively promote farmer''s agricultural machinery self-investment, the marginal effect of agricultural machinery purchase subsidy on farmer''s agricultural machinery self-investment was 2.530 8. 2) The effect of subsidies varies significantly between plain and non-plain areas. Subsidy''s marginal effect in plain county was 1.408 5, subsidy''s marginal effect in hill and mountain county was 3.108 2. Subsidy policy was more effective in hill and mountain areas. 3) Generally, subsidy''s incentive effect fluctuated significantly between the years, crowding-out effect was showed in some years. The number of years in which the policy effect declined from the previous year was equal to the number of years in which it rosed from the previous year. 4) On the whole, the subsidy effect was enhanced with the increase of the value of agricultural machinery, and the policy effect was higher for large and medium-sized agricultural machinery. Accordingly, this paper suggested that: 1) In the future, agricultural machinery purchase subsidy should continue to implement. 2) Agricultural machinery purchase subsidy should tilt appropriately to non-plain areas and large and medium-sized agricultural machinery continually. Appropriate R&D subsidies can be given to agricultural machinery production enterprises to research and develop large and advanced machines and suit machines which used in hilly and mountainous areas. Encourage local governments to include large and advanced machines and machines which was suitable used in hilly and mountainous areas into the new agricultural machinery subsidy pilot catalogue timely. Accelerate the transformation and application for new machine products. 3) Adjust or improve the subsidy mode according to the implementation situation and agricultural mechanization development situation. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural machinery agricultural machinery purchase subsidy incentive effect crowding-out effect spatiotemporal difference |
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