| 自然灾害对贵州省粮食波动的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 洪名勇,周欢,刘洪.自然灾害对贵州省粮食波动的影响研究[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(1):35-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 洪名勇 周欢 刘洪 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州大学管理学院，贵州 贵阳 550025,贵州大学管理学院，贵州 贵阳 550025,贵州大学管理学院，贵州 贵阳 550025 |
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| 基金项目： | 2014年贵州省重大应用基础研究项目(黔科合 JZ字[2014]200205)；贵州大学创新团队项目(GDWKT2013002)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了探究自然灾害对贵州粮食波动的影响规律,稳定贵州粮食产量,保障区域性粮食安全,选取贵州省1990-2013年粮食产量影响因素和1978-2013年自然灾害情况数据为研究对象,分析灾害与产量之间关系的特点。并从最常见的四大主要自然灾害入手,结合粮食产量波动基本特征,从时间和空间视角解析了灾害与产量之间的关系。研究结果表明:1978-2013年贵州粮食产量波动频率较高、幅度较大,平均周期约为4 a;自然灾害是影响产量波动的主要原因,且呈负相关性;主要自然灾害对粮食产量影响力由强到弱依次为旱灾、水灾、霜冻灾、风雹灾。针对贵州省自然灾害影响粮食波动的特点,提出了要完善自然灾害防控体系,提高自然灾害预警能力;加强农田水利设施建设与管理,注重合理空间布局;重视抗旱农作物的研究与推广的政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 贵州省 粮食产量 自然灾害 波动系数 影响因素 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/2/28 0:00:00 |
The impact of natural disasters on the fluctuation of grain production in Guizhou Province |
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| HONG Ming-yong,ZHOU Huan and LIU Hong.The impact of natural disasters on the fluctuation of grain production in Guizhou Province[J].Research of Agricultural Modernization,2016,37(1):35-42. |
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| Authors: | HONG Ming-yong ZHOU Huan and LIU Hong |
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| Institution: | College of Management, Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, China,College of Management, Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, China and College of Management, Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, China |
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| Abstract: | To explore the pattern of the influence of natural disasters on the fluctuation of grain production in Guizhou,stabilize Guizhou grain output, and enhance regional grain security, based on the factors affecting grain yield from 1990 to 2013 and natural disasters from 1978 to 2013, this paper analyzed the relationship between disasters and the grain yields in Guizhou. Starting from the four most common major natural disasters combined with the basic characteristics of thefluctuation of grain output, this paper also discussed the relationship between natural hazards and grain production fromboth time and space dimensions. Results show that grain production in Guizhou fluctuated with a higher frequency and a larger range from 1978 to 2013. The average fluctuation cycle was about 4 years, and it was very obvious that fluctuations were affected by natural disasters, among which natural disaster were the major reason for the fluctuation of grain yields, and showed a negative correlation. The major natural disasters on grain production influence from strong to weak werefollowed by droughts, floods, frost, and hailstorm. According to the characteristics of natural disasters on the fluctuation of grain production in Guizhou, some policy suggestions are presented in this paper, including to perfect the natural disasterprevention and control system, to improve the early warning capability of natural disaster, to strengthen the construction of farmland water conserving facilities and management, to pay attention to a reasonable space layout, and to encourage the research and extension of drought resistant crops. |
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| Keywords: | Guizhou Province grain yield natural disasters fluctuation coefficient influencing factors |
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