| 海峡两岸农产品贸易关系持续期研究——基于生存分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴凤娇,;陈银忠.海峡两岸农产品贸易关系持续期研究——基于生存分析方法[J].福建农业大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2014(6):5-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴凤娇 ;陈银忠 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]闽南师范大学经济学院,福建漳州363000; [2]四川外国语大学国际商学院,重庆400031 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省社科规划项目（2014B172）;福建省科技厅软科学项目（2014R0079）. |
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| 摘 要： | 选取1989-2013年海峡两岸HS-6分位农产品贸易数据,运用生存分析方法测度了海峡两岸农产品贸易关系持续期.结果表明：海峡两岸农产品贸易关系持续期很短,大陆农产品对台湾地区出口持续期的均值和中位值仅为4.47年和3年,台湾农产品对大陆出口持续期的均值和中位值仅为3.69年和2年,40％左右的贸易关系在1年后就终止,但海峡两岸农产品贸易关系若持续6年,贸易关系将趋于稳定.未来,两岸农产品贸易政策应从总体贸易属性、产品特质及国际因素等方面着力,以延长现有贸易关系的持续期.
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| 关 键 词： | 海峡两岸 农产品贸易关系 持续期 生存分析 |
Research on duration of agricultural product trade relationship between mainland and Taiwan based on the survival analysis |
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| Institution: | WU Feng-jiao , CHEN Yin-zhong (1. College of Economics, Minnan Normal University, Zhangzhou, Fujian 363000, China; 2. College of International Business, Sichuan International Studies University, Chongqing 400031, China) |
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| Abstract: | The survival analysis is applied to estimate duration of agricultural product trade relationship between mainland and Taiwan according to HS-6 agricultural product trade data from 1989 to 2013. The findings indicate that the duration is very short, and the median duration and mean duration of mainland agricultural product exporting to Taiwan are 4.47 and 3 years, the median and mean duration of Taiwan agricultural product exporting to mainland are 3.69 and 2 years. 40% of trade relationship have discontinued 1 year later. But agricultural product trade relationship between mainland and Taiwan will be stable if the trade continues for 6 years In future, agricultural product trade policy between mainland and Taiwan should focus on extending the duration of existing trade relationship in the regards of overall trade attributes, product characteristics and international factors. |
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| Keywords: | mainland and Taiwan agricultural product trade relationship duration survival analysis |
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