| 黄土高原山丘区土地生态安全动态评价及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 荣联伟,师学义,高奇,杨静,李炳意.黄土高原山丘区土地生态安全动态评价及预测[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(3):210-216. |
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| 作者姓名： | 荣联伟 师学义 高奇 杨静 李炳意 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学 土地科学技术学院, 北京 100083 |
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| 基金项目： | 国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费“北方村庄压煤山丘区土地综合整治技术研究”(201411007) |
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| 摘 要： | 以2001—2010年晋城市土地生态安全相关数据为基础，运用PSR框架模型构建了土地生态安全动态评价指标体系，运用主成分分析法确定指标权重，对晋城市土地生态安全状况进行了动态评价，并采用GM（1，1）模型对未来土地生态安全状况进行了预测。研究结果表明:晋城市土地生态安全综合值总体上呈上升的趋势，土地生态安全等级从2001年的Ⅲ级变成2010年的Ⅱ级，土地生态安全状态从2001年的“敏感”状态变成2010年的“较安全”状态。晋城市土地生态安全状况空间分异显著，不同区县（市）由于社会经济发展水平、自然条件状况、环保投入水平、土地利用结构和产业布局的不同，导致全市土地生态安全格局分布的差异性和空间演化的异质性。该研究为黄土高原山丘区土地生态安全动态评价提供一种思路，为制定科学有效的生态环境相关政策和土地整治提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 土地生态安全 PSR模型 主成分分析法 黄土高原山丘区 |
Dynamic Evaluation and Prediction on Land Ecological Security in Hilly Loess Plateau |
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| RONG Lianwei;SHI Xueyi;GAO Qi;YANG Jing;LI Bingyi.Dynamic Evaluation and Prediction on Land Ecological Security in Hilly Loess Plateau[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(3):210-216. |
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| Authors: | RONG Lianwei;SHI Xueyi;GAO Qi;YANG Jing;LI Bingyi |
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| Institution: | College of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the basic data of land ecological security from 2001 to 2010 in Jincheng City were used. The dynamic evaluation index system of land ecological security was constructed with PSR framework model. Principal component analysis was used to determine the index weight. Based on the above methods, this paper evaluated the land ecological security in Jincheng City. Otherwise, the future land ecological security was predicted using GM(1,1) model. The results showed that the land ecological security integrated value of Jincheng rose overall, the land ecological security level changed from Ⅱ in 2001 toⅢ in 2010, the land ecological security status transformed from the sensitive status in 2001 to less safe state in 2010, the spatial differentiation of land ecological security in Jincheng City was significant. Because different county has different levels of social and economic development, natural conditions, level of environmental investment, land use structure and industrial distribution, the city spatial distribution was diverse and the evolution of land ecological security pattern was heterogenous. This study provided a good method for dynamic evaluation of land ecological security in the hilly Loess Plateau, and provided the way to make effective policies for ecological environment and carry out land consolidation. |
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| Keywords: | land ecological security PSR model SPA hilly Loess Plateau |
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