| 2014年大豆市场形势分析与2015年展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 殷瑞锋,;徐雪高.2014年大豆市场形势分析与2015年展望[J].农业展望,2014(12):4-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 殷瑞锋 ;徐雪高 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]农业部信息中心,北京100125; [2]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810 |
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| 摘 要： | 预计2014年国内大豆种植面积继续下降,但黑龙江由于春涝在连续5年下降后首次增加。由于黄淮海流域部分地区大幅减产,预计全国产量比上年略减。2014年,国内大豆价格先降后升,国际大豆价格先涨后跌,价差创历史最高纪录。大豆进口继续增加,进口量有望接近7 000万t,再创纪录已成定局。展望2015年,全球大豆供给充裕,国际大豆价格难掀波澜,国内大豆价格易跌难涨。
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| 关 键 词： | 大豆市场 产量 供需 价差 进口 形势分析 后期展望 |
Soybean Market in 2014 and Its Prospect for 2015 |
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| Institution: | Yin Ruifeng,Xu Xuegao(1 Information Center of MOA, Beijing 100125; 2.Research Center for Rural Economy of MOA, Beijing 100810) |
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| Abstract: | It is expected that domestic soybean acreage continues to decline in 2014, while which is increased in Heilongjiang province after decreasing for five consecutive years because of spring floods. Total domestic production is expected to decline in virtue of the decreased yield in parts of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain area. Domestic soybean price was up after a decline, while international soybean price was down after the first increase, which made the price margin reach a record high. The import volume is expected to rise and hit a record to around 70 million tons in 2014. In 2015, the international soybean price may be difficult to lift waves for the abundant global supply, and domestic soybean price will increase by pounds and decrease by ounces. |
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| Keywords: | soybean market production supply and demand price margin import situation analysis future prospect |
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