| 2014年猪肉市场形势分析及走势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱增勇,聂凤英.2014年猪肉市场形势分析及走势预测[J].农业展望,2014(12):19-22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱增勇 聂凤英 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 农业部项目“农业农村资源等监测统计专项” （畜产品分品种预测） |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了2014年中国猪肉供应、消费和贸易情况以及对市场的影响,进而总结归纳了生猪产品市场价格走势的特点和影响因素。2014年猪肉阶段性供应过剩特征明显,生猪价格快速下跌后又快速反弹,第4季度进入低位震荡。受能繁母猪存栏连续下降影响,未来生猪供应量将会下降,猪价春节前仍然回升,但幅度不大。2015年下半年有可能出现生猪阶段性供需偏紧情况,生猪市场总体要好于2014年。
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| 关 键 词： | 生猪产品 市场形势 供应 贸易 消费 预测 |
Pork Market in 2014 and Its Prospect |
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| Zhu Zengyong,Nie Fengying.Pork Market in 2014 and Its Prospect[J].Agricultural Outlook,2014(12):19-22. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Zengyong Nie Fengying |
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| Institution: | (Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Key Lab of Digital Agricultural Early Warning Technology, Ministry of Agriculture; Key Lab of Digital Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081 ) |
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| Abstract: | After analyzing the supply, consumption and trade situation of China＇s pork and their effects on the market in 2014, this paper described the characteristics and main impact factors of hog products prices. The most outstanding features of pork market in 2014 was the periodical oversupply of hog, which made live pig prices fast deep decrease and rebound, and fluctuated at a low level in the fourth quarter. For the continuous declining of breeding sows inventory, future slaughtered pig number will decrease in short time and live pig price will still rebound in low speed. In 2015, especially in the last half, the tight situation of live pig supply and demand may make hog market better than 2014. |
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| Keywords: | hog products market trend supply trade consumption outlook |
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