| 基于物种分布模型的全球绿海龟空间分布及洄游廊道预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 邢衍阔,王林龙,刘敏,赵林林,康斌.基于物种分布模型的全球绿海龟空间分布及洄游廊道预测[J].中国水产科学,2021,28(10):1337-1345. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 邢衍阔 王林龙 刘敏 赵林林 康斌 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国海洋大学水产学院, 山东 青岛 266003 ；中国海洋大学海水养殖教育部重点实验室, 山东 青岛 266003;厦门大学海洋与地球学院, 福建 厦门 361102;自然资源部第一海洋研究所, 山东 青岛 266061 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41976091)； 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(201964002). |
| |
| 摘 要： | 环境因素影响物种的空间分布和动态, 全面了解环境与物种分布之间的关系对于其资源的管理和保护至关重要。绿海龟(Chelonia mydas)作为典型的长距离迁徙物种, 周期性地往返于索饵地和繁殖地之间, 迁徙距离可达数千千米。物种分布模型(species distribution model, SDM)是研究环境因子信息和物种分布关系的有效工具, 可以通过环境因子数据有效模拟物种潜在分布区域。本研究结合绿海龟物种出现记录点和环境变量, 应用物种分布模型预测不同时间段的绿海龟分布情况, 得出其分布区域的时空变化, 推断洄游路线。结果表明: 离岸距离、深度和海洋表层温度对绿海龟分布起重要作用; 太平洋西部、印度洋北部和大西洋西部为绿海龟主要适宜栖息范围; 大西洋-地中海以及印度洋-太平洋之间存在绿海龟洄游通道。同时, 基于气候变化模拟了绿海龟 2050 年和 2100 年的潜在分布区域, 分布范围在印度洋中部、太平洋中西部海域减少, 在大西洋中部海域增加, 在全球范围内呈现向高纬度海域扩散的趋势。
|
| 关 键 词： | 绿海龟 洄游路线 物种分布模型 潜在分布 气候变化 |
Global prediction of spatial distribution and migratory corridors of green turtles based on species distribution modeling |
| |
| XING Yankuo,WANG Linlong,LIU Min,ZHAO Linlin,KANG Bin.Global prediction of spatial distribution and migratory corridors of green turtles based on species distribution modeling[J].Journal of Fishery Sciences of China,2021,28(10):1337-1345. |
| |
| Authors: | XING Yankuo WANG Linlong LIU Min ZHAO Linlin KANG Bin |
| |
| Abstract: | Green turtles (Chelonia mydas) are widely distributed in tropical and subtropical seas. As a typical long-distant migratory species, they frequently travel between feeding and nesting grounds, and some can travel thousands of kilometers in migrations. The green turtle population has sharply declined globally, chiefly due to overfishing and habitat loss. In addition, global warming can influence the population structure to a female-biased sex ratio. In this study, we designed the species distribution model (SDM) to predict the migration route and the potential distribution range of green turtles. The occurrence of green turtles and environmental variables were used to construct an ensemble SDM. Based on this model, the distribution range and possible migration route of the green turtle were projected under the conditions of future climate change scenarios. It was predicted that offshore distance, depth, and surface temperature will be important factors influencing the migration of green turtles. It was also predicted that the Western Pacific, Northern Indian, and Western Atlantic oceans will be important habitats. Migration corridors are found in Atlantic-Mediterranean and Indian-Pacific groups. In keeping with future climate change, the suitable habitats for green turtles under the low-concentration emission scenario (RCP26) will decrease, and the suitable habitats under the high-concentration emission scenario (RPC85) will increase, irrespective of the scenarios. Additionally, the green turtles showed a tendency to expand toward the polar regions under both two concentration emission scenarios. These results provide scientific methods to use in the protection of green turtles, an important marine species, by exploring possible migration routes and changes in their habitats under future climate change conditions. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
| 点击此处可从《中国水产科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《中国水产科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
