| 基于SPI指数的满洲里市气象干旱特征分析及农牧业影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 阿丽雅.基于SPI指数的满洲里市气象干旱特征分析及农牧业影响[J].现代农业科技,2021,22(22). |
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| 作者姓名： | 阿丽雅 |
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| 作者单位： | 满洲里市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用1957-2020年共64年满洲里市气象局逐月降水资料。基于标准化降水指数(SPI),采用线性趋势分析、滑动平均等分析方法对满洲里市气象干旱进行特征分析。分析了满洲里市64年中干旱出现频率为29.69%,轻旱出现频率10.94%,中旱出现频率14.06%,重旱出现频率4.69%；干旱强度在-2.11至2.76之间,SPI值呈减小趋势,干旱强度呈增加趋势,变化率在-0.15/10年。通过春夏秋冬四个季节时间段的标准化降水指数分析显示春季和夏季出现干旱概率最高均为31.25%,特旱在春季出现频率最高为4.69%,重旱在冬季出现频率最高为7.81%,中旱在春季出现频率最高为21.88%。最终分析干旱对满洲里市农业和畜牧业的不利影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 满洲里市 干旱 标准化降水指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/4/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/4/12 0:00:00 |
Spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological drought and its influence on agriculture and animal husbandry in Manzhouli City based on SPI |
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| Abstract: | This paper uses the monthly precipitation data of Manzhouli Meteorological Bureau in 64 years from 1957 to 2020. Based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the characteristics of meteorological drought in Manzhouli City were analyzed by using linear trend analysis and moving average analysis methods. The frequency of drought, light drought, medium drought and severe drought were 29.69%, 10.94%, 14.06% and 4.69% in Manzhouli city in 64 years. When the drought intensity was between -2.11 and 2.76, the SPI value showed a decreasing trend, while the drought intensity showed an increasing trend, with a change rate of -0.15/10 years. The analysis of standardized precipitation index in spring, summer, autumn and winter showed that the probability of drought was 31.25% in spring and summer, the frequency of extreme drought was 4.69% in spring, the frequency of severe drought was 7.81% in winter, and the frequency of moderate drought was 21.88% in spring. Finally, the adverse effects of drought on agriculture and animal husbandry in Manzhouli City were analyzed. |
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| Keywords: | Manzhouli City: The drought SPI |
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