| 甘肃省水资源时间序列模型及其变化规律研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张新民,金彦兆,刘佳莉,李元红.甘肃省水资源时间序列模型及其变化规律研究[J].灌溉排水学报,2003,22(6):46-49. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张新民 金彦兆 刘佳莉 李元红 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州大学,资源环境学院,甘肃,兰州,730000;甘肃省水利科学研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000
2. 甘肃省水利科学研究所,甘肃,兰州,730000 |
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| 摘 要： | 水文水资源序列是一个具有周期变化、随机变化和递增或递减趋势变化的复杂时间序列。作为一种近似,可以把水文序列{Qt}分为趋势序列{Nt}、周期序列{Pt}和随机性的平稳时间序列{St},即式:Qt=Nt+Pt+St。采用时间序列分析的方法,建立了甘肃省水资源的时间序列模型,分析了其变化规律,结果表明,甘肃省水资源呈明显下降趋势,并存在一定的周期变化规律。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源 时间序列 变化规律 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-646X(2003)06-0046-04 |
Time Sequence Model of Water Resources and Its Chang Pattern in Gansu Province |
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| ZHANG Xin-min.Time Sequence Model of Water Resources and Its Chang Pattern in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2003,22(6):46-49. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xin-min |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Xin-min~ |
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| Abstract: | Hydrologic sequence is a complicated time sequence, which has characteristics such as periodic changes, random changes and increasing or decreasing trend changes. Hydrologic sequence{Q_t} could be approximately divided into three components, that is: trend sequence{N_t}, periodic sequence {P_t} and random sequence{S_t}, and calculated by, viz. Q_t =N_t +P_t +S. The time sequence model of water resources in Gansu Province is established in this essay, and the change pattern is analyzed. The result shows that water resources in Gansu Province has a downtrend and periodic change trend. |
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| Keywords: | water resources time sequence change pattern |
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