| 基于扩展STIRPAT模型的湖州市能源碳排放主导 因素识别分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 芋耀贤,陈洪银,王松岑,霍永锋,郭毅,金璐,谭将军,邵越.基于扩展STIRPAT模型的湖州市能源碳排放主导 因素识别分析[J].农业工程,2023,13(9). |
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| 作者姓名： | 芋耀贤 陈洪银 王松岑 霍永锋 郭毅 金璐 谭将军 邵越 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司,中国电力科学研究院有限公司,中国电力科学研究院有限公司,中国电力科学研究院有限公司,中国电力科学研究院有限公司,中国电力科学研究院有限公司,国网浙江省电力有限公司,国网浙江省电力有限公司 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于浙江省湖州市2007年-2020年的主要能源消费数据，采用排放因子法估算主要能源碳排放量，利用扩展STIRPAT模型构建湖州市能源消费碳排放预测模型，并以人口数量、人均GDP、能源结构、单位产值能耗、农业增加值占全市生产总值比例、农业机械总动力、产业结构等为因素，分析了影响湖州市能源消费碳排放主要原因。结果发现，湖州市能源消费碳排放量总体呈“降低-升高-降低”变化趋势；碳排放模型拟合程度R2为0.812，F检验显著性小于0.01，且验证发现模型的平均相对误差为3.59%，说明该模型能较好的反应湖州市能源消费碳排放的特征；进一步分析发现，影响湖州市碳排放的主导因素为能源消费结构、单位产值能耗、农业增加值占全市生产总值的比重、农业机械总动力以及产业结构，其中上述主要因素对湖州市能源消费碳排放的影响指数分别为0.24%、-0.16%、-0.32%、-0.62%、-0.45%。
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| 关 键 词： | 扩展STIRPAT模型 能源消费碳排放 能源结构 农业机械总动力 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/9/13 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/9/23 0:00:00 |
Identification of dominant factors in Huzhou's carbon emissions based on an extended STIRPAT model |
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| Yu Yaoxian,Che Hongyin,Wang Songcen,Huo Yongfeng,Guo yi,Jin Lu,Tan Jiangjun and Shao Yue.Identification of dominant factors in Huzhou's carbon emissions based on an extended STIRPAT model[J].Agricultural Engineering,2023,13(9). |
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| Authors: | Yu Yaoxian Che Hongyin Wang Songcen Huo Yongfeng Guo yi Jin Lu Tan Jiangjun and Shao Yue |
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| Institution: | China Electric Power Research Institute,China Electric Power Research Institute,China Electric Power Research Institute,China Electric Power Research Institute,China Electric Power Research Institute,China Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid zhejiang Electric CO.,Ltd. Hangzhou Zhejiang,State Grid zhejiang Electric CO.,Ltd. Hangzhou Zhejiang |
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| Abstract: | Based on the main energy consumption data of Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, from 2007 to 2020, the emission factor method was used to estimate the carbon emissions of the main energy sources, and the extended STIRPAT model was used to construct a prediction model for the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Huzhou City, and the population size, per capita GDP, energy structure, energy consumption per unit of output, the proportion of the added value of agriculture to the city''s gross domestic product, the total power of agricultural machinery, and industrial structure were used as factors to analyse the main reasons affecting the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Huzhou City. The main reasons affecting the energy consumption carbon emission in Huzhou were analysed as factors. The results found that the overall energy consumption and carbon emissions in Huzhou City show a "lowering - rising - lowering" trend; the carbon emission model fit R2 is 0.812, the F-test significance is less than 0.01, and the verification found that the average relative error of the model is 3.59%, which indicates that the model can better respond to the characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Huzhou City; further analysis found that the model can better respond to the characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Huzhou City emissions; further analysis found that the dominant factors affecting carbon emissions in Huzhou City are energy consumption structure, energy consumption per unit of output value, the share of agricultural added value in the city''s gross domestic product, the total power of agricultural machinery and industrial structure, of which the influence indexes of the above mentioned major factors on carbon emissions from energy consumption in Huzhou City are 0.24%, -0.16%, -0.32%, -0.62%, and -0.45%. |
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| Keywords: | The extended STIRPAT model Carbon emissions from energy consumption Energy mix Total power of agricultural machinery |
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