| 农业害虫发生程度的级值判别数学模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁世飞,马文汇.农业害虫发生程度的级值判别数学模型的研究[J].山东农业大学学报(自然科学版),1998,29(1):67-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁世飞 马文汇 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东农业大学基础部，山东省章丘市农业广播学校，山东省胶南市农业局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对山东省临沂市１９６５～１９８６年（１９８０年除外）共２１年的历史观测数据级值进行了数量分析，建立了第二代玉米螟有虫株率的５个级值判别数学模型。经回报验证，其历史符合率达１００％。将１９８７年、１９８８年观测数据级值作为独立样本进行试报，其预报准确率达１００％。为农业害虫发生程度的中长期预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 级值判别数学模型 预测预报 |
STUDIES ON MATHEMATICAL DISCRIMINATORY MODEL OF GRADE VALUE OF THE DEGREE OF OCCURRENCE ON AGRICULTURAL INSECTS |
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| Ding Shifei,Dong Houkui et al..STUDIES ON MATHEMATICAL DISCRIMINATORY MODEL OF GRADE VALUE OF THE DEGREE OF OCCURRENCE ON AGRICULTURAL INSECTS[J].Journal of Shandong Agricultural University,1998,29(1):67-71. |
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| Authors: | Ding Shifei Dong Houkui |
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| Abstract: | Analyzing meteorological data of grade value in 21 years from 1965 to 1986(except 1980)at Linyi,Shandong province,the authors deduced five mathematical discriminatory model of grade value of forecasting the population fluctuation of the second generation of the corn bover.The results obtained from the pest data show that the fitting rate is 100%,and that the accuracy of forecasting for 1987 and 1988 is right.This new method may also be tried for the mid-term or long-term forecasting of other the population dynamics of agricultural pests. |
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| Keywords: | mathematical diseriminatory models foreeasting |
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