| 我国东部样带适应全球气候变化的若干粮食生产对策的模拟研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 金之庆,葛道阔,高亮之,石春林.我国东部样带适应全球气候变化的若干粮食生产对策的模拟研究[J].中国农业科学,1998,31(4):51-58. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金之庆 葛道阔 高亮之 石春林 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省农业科学院农业现代化研究所，南京 210014 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据在两种CO#-2有效倍增气候变化情景下进行作物模拟试验以及应用有关农业气候指标进行分析的结果，提出了中国东部样带为适应全球气候变化的若干粮食生产对策。在研究区域的北部与南部。分别采用UKMO和GISS情景进行作物模拟试验，作物模型采用的是在研究区域的23个样点经广泛检验的CERES模型系列。结果表明：研究区域的粮食生产仍有回旋余地和多种适应性对策可供选择，包括提高复种指数、发展多熟种植制度、调整品种布局、改善灌溉条件、引进和培育新品种、调整种植日期等。所有这些在模拟研究基础上得出的结论，为制定中国今后适应全球气候变化的农业发展战略与对策提供了科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 全球气候变化 中国东部样带 粮食生产 适应性对策 |
Food Crop Production Strategies for Adaptation to Global Climate Change in the Sampling Zones of Eastern China-A Modeling Study |
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| Jin Zhiqing,Ge Daokuo,Gao Liangzhi,Shi Chunlin.Food Crop Production Strategies for Adaptation to Global Climate Change in the Sampling Zones of Eastern China-A Modeling Study[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,1998,31(4):51-58. |
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| Authors: | Jin Zhiqing Ge Daokuo Gao Liangzhi Shi Chunlin |
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| Abstract: | Several food crop production strategies for adaptation to global climatechange in the sampling zones of Eastern China were advanced, based on crop modeling experiments and related agroclimatic indices with two doubled CO 2 climate change scenarios. The GISS and UKMO equilibrium scenarios were chosen respectively to conduct the experiments for the southern and northern parts of the studied region, The CERES models were used as the effect models, because they had been widely validated for 23 sampling sites in the studied region. The results indicate that facing the challenge of global climate change,there are still several possible adaptation strategies which could be chosen by China, including but not limit to increase in cropping index, development of multiple cropping system, regulation of crop or varietal disposition,improvement of irrigation conditions, introduction or breeding of new crop varieties and adjustment of crop planting dates and, combination of the above mentioned strategies, etc. All of the conclusions based on the simulation experiments provide scientific basis for China to make the long term agricultural strategies and policies for adaptation to global climate change. |
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| Keywords: | Global climate change Sampling zones of eastern China Food crop production Adaptation strategy |
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