| 基于3次指数平滑的水稻生产综合机械化发展水平预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱立学,罗锡文,臧英,区颖刚.基于3次指数平滑的水稻生产综合机械化发展水平预测[J].农机化研究,2007(7):51-53,57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱立学 罗锡文 臧英 区颖刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华南农业大学,工程学院,广州,510642;仲恺农业技术学院,机电工程系,广州,510225
2. 华南农业大学,工程学院,广州,510642 |
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| 摘 要： | 水稻机械化生产的发展过程因受外部因素的干扰,呈现出非线性的特点.为此,利用3次指数平滑的时间序列法进行水稻生产综合机械化发展水平的预测,能排除外部的偶然干扰,平稳地反映出水稻生产综合机械化水平的发展趋势,取得较贴近实际的预测结果,为区域农业机械化的发展规划提供决策依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 农业工程 水稻生产机械化 理论研究 预测 指数平滑法 指数平滑 水稻生产 综合 机械化水平 发展水平 预测结果 Forecast Mechanization Rice Based 决策依据 发展规划 农业 区域 贴近实际 趋势 时间序列法 利用 非线性 干扰 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-188X（2007）07-0051-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-10-15 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-15 |
3-exponential Flatting Method Based on Rice Mechanization Forecast |
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| ZHU Li-xue,LUO Xi-wen,ZANG Ying,OU Ying-gang.3-exponential Flatting Method Based on Rice Mechanization Forecast[J].Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research,2007(7):51-53,57. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Li-xue LUO Xi-wen ZANG Ying OU Ying-gang |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Engineering, South C.hina Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China; 2.Department of Eletromechanical, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Technology, Guangzhou 510225, China |
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| Abstract: | Disturbed by environment aspects, the development of rice mechanization is of un-linear tendency. To overcome these contingent aspects, a forecast method of 3-exponential flat was adopted to obtain such general development indexes smoothly. The procedure of this forecast had been proposed in the paper with a good result tallying with the fact of rice mechanization development in Guangdong province. This research work will be available in strategy decision-make project of agriculture mechanization design. |
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| Keywords: | agricultural engineering rice mechanization theoretical research forecast exponential flat forecast method |
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