| 黑河上游山区径流变化特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李占玲,徐宗学.黑河上游山区径流变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012(9):51-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李占玲 徐宗学 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院;北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2010ZY13,2011YXL038)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 河川径流的演变既呈现一定的趋势性,又存在一定的突变性。趋势可以反映径流序列总体的演变规律,突变则可以说明径流序列的某些统计规律何时发生变化。文中分别采用Mann-Kendall检验法和非参数累积和检验法针对黑河上游山区径流序列的趋势和突变特征进行了探讨。结果表明:扎木什克站春、夏、秋季径流和年平均径流量略有增加,冬季径流显著减少;莺落峡站春、夏、秋季径流有所增加,冬季显著减少,年平均径流呈微弱减少趋势。扎木什克站1、2、12月平均径流及冬季径流序列在90年代初出现变点,变点后径流序列的均值较变点前有所减少;莺落峡站4月份径流在1992年存在变点,变点后径流序列的均值较变点前有所增加。
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| 关 键 词： | 径流 Mann-Kendall 非参数累积和检验 趋势 变点 黑河 |
Characteristics of runoff time series for the upper reaches of Heihe River basin |
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| LI Zhanling,XU Zongxue.Characteristics of runoff time series for the upper reaches of Heihe River basin[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012(9):51-56. |
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| Authors: | LI Zhanling XU Zongxue |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Water Resources and Environment,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,P.R.China; 2.Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences,Ministry of Education,College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | Long-term trends and change points of historical runoff time series in the upper reaches of Heihe River basin were detected by using two statistical methods,and the possible reasons related to runoff changes are analyzed from meteorological variables perspectives.The statistical methods of nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and distribution free CUSUM test were used.Results showed that the monthly runoffs in January,February,March and December and winter runoff for Zhamushike station showed remarkable decreasing trends at the significance level of 0.001(or 0.05,0.01).Winter runoffs for Yingluoxia station showed decreasing trends and April runoff show increasing trends both at 0.1 significance levels.Changes of other runoff series for both stations were not remarkable.With respect to the change points,monthly runoff for Zhamushike station in January,February and December and winter runoff probably occurred changes in 1991,1993,1990 and 1991,respectively.Average runoff at this station in the latter period was smaller than that in the former period.For Yingluoxia station,April runoff occurred change in 1992.Trends,the occurrence and the location of change points of runoff were attributed by many climatic factors such as precipitation,air temperature,evapotranspiration,soil water storage,etc.Human activities showed little effects on such kind of changes. |
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| Keywords: | runoff Mann-Kendall CUSUM trend change point Heihe River |
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