| 新疆玛纳斯河径流时间变化特征及其趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈雪峰,艾成.新疆玛纳斯河径流时间变化特征及其趋势分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012(7):14-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈雪峰 艾成 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆伊犁花城勘测设计研究有限责任公司;宁夏水文水资源勘测局石嘴山分局 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC17B02)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据新疆玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站近46年实测月径流量资料,采用Morlet小波分析,径流集中度、轮次分析、游程检验、极差分析、气候趋势系数法等方法分析了玛纳斯河径流系列多时间尺度变化特征及其未来变化趋势。结果表明:玛纳斯河年径流系列存在7年及25年主周期;极限枯水历时达8年,平均缺水4.40m3/s;单独丰水年概率高于单独枯水年概率,发生3年及以上连枯年概率均高于连丰年,易发生持续干旱;玛纳斯河年径流和夏季径流显著增加(P=0.01),幅度分别为2.24m3/(s·10a)及7.45m3/(s·10a),夏季径流增加尤为明显;秋季和冬季径流也呈现增加趋势(P=0.05),幅度分别为0.45m3/(s·10a)及0.49m3/(s·10a)。
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| 关 键 词： | 径流 变化特征 趋势分析 玛纳斯河 新疆 |
Runoff change characteristics and the trend for Manasi River in Xinjiang |
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| SHEN Xuefeng,AI Cheng.Runoff change characteristics and the trend for Manasi River in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012(7):14-19. |
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| Authors: | SHEN Xuefeng AI Cheng |
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| Institution: | 1.Xinjiang Limited Liability Company of New Water Hydraulic Science Development,Urumqi 830011,P.R.China; 2.Shi Zui-shan Branch Bureau,Ningxia Hydrographic and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Shizuishan 753400,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | Using the morlet wavelet analysis,runoff concentration index,the run theory,the displacement,extremum deviation theory and climatic trend coefficient method,the characteristics of runoff on the multiple-time scale variability and its trend were researched using the monthly runoff data of Kensiwate Station in Manas River for last 46 years.Results indicated that the annual runoff series of the Manasi River had significant cycles for 7 years and 25 years.The maximum drought period was 8 years and the amount of deficiency was 4.40m3/s.The probability of a single wet year was bigger than that the single dry year,and the probability of even dry years was higher than even wet years,and the durative drought often occurred in Manasi River basin.The annual and summer runoff of Manasi River showed larger increase with the range of 2.14m3/(s·10a) and 7.45m3/(s·10a)(passed 0.01 significance test) respectively、Moreover,the runoff in autumn and winter presented a small increase range of 0.45m3/(s·10a) and 0.49m3/(s·10a)(passed 0.05 significance test) respectively. |
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| Keywords: | runoff variation character trend analysis Manasi River Xinjiang |
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