| 近50a来黑河流域气候变暖对农业生产的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵一飞,张勃,张亚宁,王强,何旭强,尹海霞.近50a来黑河流域气候变暖对农业生产的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012(12):130-136. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵一飞 张勃 张亚宁 王强 何旭强 尹海霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40961038);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806021-07);生态经济学省级重点学科(5002-021);西北师范大学知识与科技创新工程项目(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-66)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1960～2009年间黑河流域及其周围15个气象站点的逐月气温观测数据,运用多年趋势线法、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析等方法,对黑河流域气候变化进行了研究。结果表明:近50年来黑河流域气温总体呈增加趋势(β值为0.027℃/a),线性增长率为0.28℃/10a,相当于50年中气温升高了1.4℃,其中20世纪70～80年代气温上升缓慢,至20世纪90年代以后气温显著上升;空间分布上,年均气温变化呈现出由西向东逐渐增温的趋势,其中流域中上游东部和下游地区气温升温幅度较大,以中游民乐和下游额济纳旗最为显著;流域年均气温变化存在着10～15年左右的主振荡周期和6年左右的次振荡周期,其中以13年左右的振荡周期最强;流域年平均气温在1987年发生突变,之后进入偏暖期;同时进一步分析了气候变暖对农业生产的影响,为合理利用本地气候资源提供参考依据,使流域农业得到持续稳定的发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 黑河流域 气候变化 趋势分析 农业生产 |
Impacts of climate change on agriculture production in the Heihe river basin in recent 50 years |
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| ZHAO Yifei,ZHANG Bo,ZHANG Yaning,WANG Qiang,HE Xuqiang,YIN Haixia.Impacts of climate change on agriculture production in the Heihe river basin in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012(12):130-136. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Yifei ZHANG Bo ZHANG Yaning WANG Qiang HE Xuqiang YIN Haixia |
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| Institution: | (College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China) |
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| Abstract: | Heihe River is located in the arid region of northwestern China.The observed meteorological data collected from 15 weather stations covering the 50-year period from 1960 to 2009 were analyzed to understand the trend of air-temperature change,cyclic and abrupt in Heihe river basin,by employing linear trend analysis as well as Mann-Kendall rank analysis,wavelet,R/S,and abrupt analysis.The result showed that: on the whole,the annual mean air-temperature in Heihe river basin markedly had a upward trend with the warming rate of 0.28℃/10a(at the α=0.05 significant level β =0.027)during the recent 50 years.The result indicated that the temperature of this region increased by 1.4℃ in the last five decades,which rose slowly about 70~80’s temperature in twentieth Century,until temperature rose significantly after nineteen ninties.For the spatial distribution,the average annual temperature changed gradually from west to east showing a warming trend,in which the eastern watershed upstream and downstream temperatures heated up a big margin to the middle and lower reaches of folk music Ejinaqi the most significant;Annual mean air-temperature changed in Heihe river basin fluctuated with a cycle of 10-15 and a subordinate cycle of 5 years.Particularly,the 13 years oscillation was dominated.The annual mean air temperature in Heihe river basin abrupt change point was in 1987,prior to the point was a cool stage and after it a warm stage emerged.Further analysis of climate warming on agricultural production can provides references the rational use of local resources and the sustained and stable development of agriculture. |
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| Keywords: | Heihe river basin climate change trend analysis agricultural production |
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