| 小麦条锈病区域流行相关性研究初报 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈刚 王海光 张录达 王滔 马占鸿 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国农业大学植物病理学系 北京100094(陈刚，王海光，马占鸿)，中国农业大学应用数学系 北京100094(张录达，王滔) |
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| 摘 要： | 小麦条锈病是一种大区流行病害,病菌夏孢子可随气流远程传播,该病的多次流行给中国农业生产造成了严重损失。选择甘肃天水、四川马尔康、陕西汉中、西安、河南郑州,根据各地1988—2000年小麦条锈病病情数据和每年3月1日-5月31日降雨量、相对湿度、最大风向、平均风速、最高气温、最低气温等地面气象观测资料,采用主成分分析和判别分析方法,初步明确了天水的病害发生流行对其他区域的影响,证明了天水小麦条锈病的发生和流行对马尔康和郑州有相当大的影响,而与汉中、西安的相关性不高。研究结果对于探明小麦条锈病大区流行规律,实现对其宏观管理和超长期预测具有一定的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 小麦条锈病 区域流行 主成分分析 判别分析 |
Preliminary Research on the Regional Relationship of Epidemic of Puccinia striiformis in China |
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| Authors: | Chen Gang Wang Haiguang Zhang Lud Wang Tao Ma Zhanhong |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Plant Pathology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094; 2.Department of Applicd Mathematics, China Agricultural University, Beijing 10094 |
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| Abstract: | Stripe rust of wheat, caused by Puccinia striiformis f.sp.tritici, is one of pandemic diseases causing severe losses in china. Five regions with enough disease degree and meteorological data to research the region relativity on pandemic from March 1 to May 31 in 1988-2000, were chosen as typical objectives, including Tianshui in Gansu province, Maerkang in Sichuan province, Hanzhong and Xian in Shaanxi province, and Zhengzhou in Henan province. Using principal component analysis and discriminant analysis, we basically defined the relations of epidemics of Wheat stripe rust between Tianshui and other regions. It is proved that the epidemics of Wheat stripe rust in Tianshui has a significant effect on Maerkang and Zhengzhou, but has no intimate relation with Hanzhong and Xian. This research is significant for finding out the disciplinarian of wheat stripe rust on pandemic and its macroscopic management and super long-term prediction. |
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| Keywords: | Wheat stripe rust Regional epidemic Relationship Analysis Principal component analysis Discriminant analysis |
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