| 基于STIRPAT模型的陕西省耕地面积变化社会经济驱动力分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郭雅雯,赵敏娟.基于STIRPAT模型的陕西省耕地面积变化社会经济驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(6):197-201. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郭雅雯 赵敏娟 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 西北农林科技大学 经济管理学院, 陕西 杨凌 712100 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目，西北农林科技大学重点科研项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 近年来,耕地面积变化的人文驱动力研究成为土地利用与土地覆盖变化(LUCC)领域研究的热点.以陕西省1978-2010年耕地面积数据及其相关社会经济影响因素时间序列数据为例,通过主成分分析法、逐步回归法筛选出影响陕西省耕地面积变化的主要影响因素.然后运用STIRPAT模型,分析经以上方法筛选出的主要影响因素即城镇化率、人均生产总值、公路里程、社会消费品总额对于陕西省耕地面积变化的影响.结果表明:人均生产总值的提高是导致陕西省耕地面积减少的主要原因,社会消费品总额的增加对于陕西省耕地面积的减少也发挥着重要的作用.而交通条件的完善是促进陕西省耕地面积增加的主要驱动力.同时,城市化率的提高对抑制耕地面积的减少起到了一定的促进作用.据此,研究认为缓解陕西省耕地面积减少的压力可以从进一步提高城镇化率、完善交通设施,调整优化产业结构,转变经济增长方式等方面入手.
|
| 关 键 词： | 耕地变化 社会经济驱动力 STIRPAT模型 陕西省 |
Analysis on Societal and Economic Driving Force for Changes in Area of Cultivated Land of Shaanxi Province Based on STIRPAT Model |
| |
| GUO Ya-wen,ZHAO Min-juan.Analysis on Societal and Economic Driving Force for Changes in Area of Cultivated Land of Shaanxi Province Based on STIRPAT Model[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(6):197-201. |
| |
| Authors: | GUO Ya-wen ZHAO Min-juan |
| |
| Institution: | College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the driving force for changes in cultivated land area is one of the hotspots in land-use change researches. With the cultivated land data and related socio-economic development data from 1978 to 2010, the main influencing factors were sifted by principal component analysis and stepwise regression. Afterwards, the relationship between cultivated land and main influencing factors of urbanization rate, the per capita GDP, highway mileage, total social retail sales were analyzed in Shaanxi Province by introducing STIRPAT model. The results showed that the per capita GDP was the main reason for the declining of cultivated land area. Furthermore, the increase of total social retail sales also played an important role in decrease of cultivated land area. However, the improvement of traffic condition promoted the increase of cultivated land. Meanwhile, the increase of urbanization rate made contribution to the cultivated land growth. Accordingly, several suggestions are proposed in this study to mitigate the pressure of cultivated land reduction, including urbanization level improvement, transport facilities level improvement, industrial structure adjustment and economic growth mode transition, etc. |
| |
| Keywords: | cultivated land change socio-economic driving forces STIRPAT model Shaanxi Province |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《水土保持研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《水土保持研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
