| 基于灰色多元线性计量经济模型的湖南省农村居民收入预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李军成.基于灰色多元线性计量经济模型的湖南省农村居民收入预测[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(2):155-160. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李军成 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南人文科技学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省教育厅教改资助项目;湖南人文科技学院教学改革研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对单一预测模型精度不高以及预测结果不能体现经济变量关系的不足,将灰色GM（1,1）模型与多元线性计量经济模型加以耦合,建立了灰色多元线性计量经济模型,并利用该模型对湖南省农村居民人均纯收入进行了预测。灰色多元线性计量经济模型的预测精度不仅明显高于单一的灰色GM（1,1）模型和多元线性回归模型,而且预测结果也能体现经济变量之间的关系。预测结果表明,未来几年湖南省农村居民人均纯收入逐年增长,但增长的速度较为缓慢。最后,给出了几点调控湖南省农村居民收入差距的建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 农民纯收入 预测 灰色GM（1 1）模型 多元线性计量经济模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 3/5/2013 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2013/4/17 0:00:00 |
Forecasting Income of the Rural Residents in Hunan Province Based on Gray Multivariable Linear Econometric model |
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| Liu Liang;Li Juncheng;Chen Guohua.Forecasting Income of the Rural Residents in Hunan Province Based on Gray Multivariable Linear Econometric model[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2014,30(2):155-160. |
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| Authors: | Liu Liang;Li Juncheng;Chen Guohua |
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| Institution: | Liu Liang;Li Juncheng;Chen Guohua;Department of Mathematics,Hunan Institute of Humanities,Science and Technology; |
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| Abstract: | The accuracy of a single forecasting model is not high, and the forecasting results can not reflect the relationship between economic variables. For solving these problems, the gray multivariable linear econometric model is constructed by combining with the gray GM(1,1) model and multivariable econometric model. And then, the proposed model is used to forecast trend of the per capital net income of rural residents in Hunan province. The forecasting precision of the proposed model is not only higher than the single gray GM(1,1) model and multivariable linear regression model, but also could reflect the relationships between the economic variables. The forecasting results show that the per capital net income of rural residents in Hunan province will increase year by year in next few years, but the growth rate will be relatively slow. Finally, some suggestions for regulating the income gap of rural residents in Hunan province. |
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| Keywords: | multivariable econometric model |
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