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植物生长季热量资源趋势变化与气候突变
引用本文:赵凤,田鹏波,高桐,张国林.植物生长季热量资源趋势变化与气候突变[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(11):216-221.
作者姓名:赵凤  田鹏波  高桐  张国林
作者单位:1. 沈阳市东陵区气象局2. 沈阳市气象局3. 辽宁省朝阳市气象局
基金项目:国家科技支撑计划项目“北方农业低温冷害监测预警技术研究专题东北玉米低温冷害的监测研究”(2006BAD04B02);中国气象局气候变化专项“东北粮食生产格局的气候变化影响与适应”(CCSF-09-13).
摘    要:为了调整沈阳市植物结构,对低温冷害进行监测研究,保障粮食生产安全提供依据,采用气候统计诊断分析方法,对近60年沈阳市植物生长季热量资源变化趋势及突变进行研究。结果表明:近60年沈阳市植物生长季平均气温和≥10℃活动积温均呈显著上升趋势,气候倾向率分别为0.164℃/10a和51.52℃·d/10a。近30年植物生长季平均气温升高0.6℃;≥10℃活动积温增加180℃·d。应用信噪比诊断1951—2010年长序列气候突变不明显。经滑动平均和年际逐渐延长,植物生长季平均气温和≥10℃活动积温保持持续上升的正相关。研究结果对合理利用热量资源,调整农植物种植结构,合理安排农业生产工程具有参考价值。

关 键 词:植物生长季  热量资源  气候倾向率  气候突变
收稿时间:2013/6/24 0:00:00
修稿时间:7/4/2013 12:00:00 AM

Change Tendency of Heat Resource and Sudden Change in Climate in Growing Season
Zhao Feng,Tian Pengbo,Gao Tong.Change Tendency of Heat Resource and Sudden Change in Climate in Growing Season[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2014,30(11):216-221.
Authors:Zhao Feng  Tian Pengbo  Gao Tong
Institution:1 Dongling District Meteorological Bureau of Shenyang, Shenyang 110168; 2Meteorological Bureau of Shenyang, Shenyang 110168)
Abstract:In order to adjust the crop and plant structure in Shenyang, to monitor and research chilling damage, and provide foundation for insuring safe food production, the author analyzed the change tendency and sudden change of thermal energy in nearly 60 a crop and plant' s growing season in Shenyang by utilizing the method of statistical diagnosis and analysis of climate. The result showed that: both of the average temperature in the 60 a crop and plant' s growing season in Shenyang and the active accumulated temperature which was greater or equal to 10℃ increased dramatically, with climate trend rate 0.164℃/10 a and 51.52℃ ·d/10 a separately. The average temperature in nearly 30 a growing season rose by 0.6℃ and the active accumulated temperature which was greater or equal to 10 ℃ increased by 180℃ · d. The signal-to-noise ration indicated that long- sequence sudden change in climate between 1951 and 2010 was not obvious. With the moving average and the prolongation of years, there was a positive correlation between the average temperature in growing season and active accumulated temperature that was greater or equal to 10℃, which sustained an upward trend. The results had reference value to the rational use of heat recourse, planting structure adjustment, as well as making agricultural production projects arranged reasonably.
Keywords:sudden change in climate
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